{"id":505133,"date":"2022-10-06T19:00:07","date_gmt":"2022-10-06T19:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=505133"},"modified":"2024-06-11T11:14:50","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T11:14:50","slug":"calm-storm-bitcoin-volatility-historically-low-levels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/calm-storm-bitcoin-volatility-historically-low-levels\/","title":{"rendered":"Calm Before The Storm? Bitcoin Volatility At Historically Low Levels"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Data shows the Bitcoin 7-day volatility has plunged down recently to pretty low values. Here&#8217;s what has historically happened following instances of such a trend.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin 7-Day Volatility Has Declined To Just 1.6% In The Past Week<\/h2>\n<p>According to the latest weekly report from <a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/profile\/8446596-arcane-research\" rel=\"nofollow\">Arcane Research<\/a>, the recent sideways trend in the BTC price has lead to the volatility dropping down to very low values.<\/p>\n<p>The &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/crypto\/crypto-volatility-might-rise-after-the-major-key-events-ahead\/\">volatility<\/a>&#8221; is an indicator that measures how the daily returns of Bitcoin have deviated from the average during a specific period.<\/p>\n<p>Here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day and 30-day versions of the metric for BTC over the last year:<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-505135 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/chart-6.png?resize=460%2C194\" alt=\"Bitcoin Volatility \" width=\"460\" height=\"194\"><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">The 7-day value of the indicator seems to have gone down in recent days | Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/theweeklyupdate.substack.com\/p\/crypto-market-holding-up-strongly?utm_source=profile&amp;utm_medium=reader2\" rel=\"nofollow\">Arcane Research's The Weekly Update - Week 39, 2022<\/a><\/pre>\n<p>As you can see in the above graph, the 7-day Bitcoin volatility has plummeted down over the past week or so.<\/p>\n<p>The metric&#8217;s value is now only 1.6%, a very low level that has only been seen a few times during the last twelve months. The 30-day volatility, though, has still stayed up recently at about 3.4%.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\" style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><em>Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/crypto\/low-volatility-crypto-market-stable-state-fear\/\"> Low Volatility Crypto Market Supplies Surprisingly Stable State Of Fear<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/div>\n<p>The reason behind such low weekly values of the indicator is the sideways consolidation between the $19k and $20k levels that the crypto&#8217;s price has been stuck in lately.<\/p>\n<p>Such low 7-day volatility values have usually been succeeded by significant surges in the metric, as noted by the report.<\/p>\n<p>This happens because leverage easily builds up during these periods. High leverage markets are highly volatile since any sudden price moves can liquidate large amounts, which further amplifies the price change.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\" style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><em>Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-bulls-bollinger-bands-btcusd-october-5-2022\/\"> Bitcoin Bulls Snap Back With The Bollinger Bands | BTCUSD Analysis October 5, 2022<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/div>\n<p>Since low volatility periods obviously don&#8217;t have any significant price spikes, leverage can go unflushed and thus pile up.<\/p>\n<p>As the Bitcoin 7-day volatility has been very low recently, this kind of buildup is again expected to take place in the market. And indeed, the BTC-denominated perpetual futures <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/is-a-spike-in-bitcoin-open-interest-forecasting-a-2021-like-bullrun-to-69000\/\">open interest<\/a> has shot up and is sitting at an all-time high right now, supporting the idea of the market being overleveraged:<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-505148 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/chart-7.png?resize=460%2C208\" alt=\"Bitcoin Open Interest\" width=\"460\" height=\"208\"><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">Looks like the value of the metric has been climbing up recently | Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/theweeklyupdate.substack.com\/p\/crypto-market-holding-up-strongly?utm_source=profile&amp;utm_medium=reader2\" rel=\"nofollow\">Arcane Research's The Weekly Update - Week 39, 2022<\/a><\/pre>\n<h2>BTC Price<\/h2>\n<p>At the time of writing, <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-blows-the-highest-daily-candle-since-last-24-days\/\">Bitcoin&#8217;s price<\/a> floats around $20.1k, up 3% in the last week. Over the past month, the crypto has gained 1% in value.<\/p>\n<p>The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-505152 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/chart-8.png?resize=460%2C158\" alt=\"Bitcoin Price Chart\" width=\"460\" height=\"158\"><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">The value of the crypto has been moving sideways since the surge a couple of days back | Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSD\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n<pre>Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Arcane Research<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Data shows the Bitcoin 7-day volatility has plunged down recently to pretty low values. Here&#8217;s what has historically happened following instances of such a trend. Bitcoin 7-Day Volatility Has Declined To Just 1.6% In The Past Week According to the latest weekly report from Arcane Research, the recent sideways trend in the BTC price has lead to the volatility dropping down to very low values. The &#8220;volatility&#8221; is an indicator that measures how the daily returns of Bitcoin have deviated from the average during a specific period. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day and 30-day versions of the metric for BTC over the last year: The 7-day value of the indicator seems to have gone down in recent days | Source: Arcane Research&#8217;s The Weekly Update &#8211; Week 39, 2022 As you can see in the above graph, the 7-day Bitcoin volatility has plummeted down over the past week or so. The metric&#8217;s value is now only 1.6%, a very low level that has only been seen a few times during the last twelve months. The 30-day volatility, though, has still stayed up recently at about 3.4%. Related Reading: Low Volatility Crypto Market Supplies Surprisingly Stable State Of Fear The reason behind such low weekly values of the indicator is the sideways consolidation between the $19k and $20k levels that the crypto&#8217;s price has been stuck in lately. Such low 7-day volatility values have usually been succeeded by significant surges in the metric, as noted by the report. This happens because leverage easily builds up during these periods. High leverage markets are highly volatile since any sudden price moves can liquidate large amounts, which further amplifies the price change. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Snap Back With The Bollinger Bands | BTCUSD Analysis October 5, 2022 Since low volatility periods obviously don&#8217;t have any significant price spikes, leverage can go unflushed and thus pile up. As the Bitcoin 7-day volatility has been very low recently, this kind of buildup is again expected to take place in the market. And indeed, the BTC-denominated perpetual futures open interest has shot up and is sitting at an all-time high right now, supporting the idea of the market being overleveraged: Looks like the value of the metric has been climbing up recently | Source: Arcane Research&#8217;s The Weekly Update &#8211; Week 39, 2022 BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin&#8217;s price floats around $20.1k, up 3% in the last week. Over the past month, the crypto has gained 1% in value. The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days. The value of the crypto has been moving sideways since the surge a couple of days back | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Arcane Research<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":505153,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,87125,621,84667,790,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-505133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-7-day-volatility","tag-bitcoin-leverage","tag-bitcoin-open-interest","tag-bitcoin-volatility","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Calm Before The Storm? 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. 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Bitcoin Volatility At Historically Low Levels","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/calm-storm-bitcoin-volatility-historically-low-levels\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/calm-storm-bitcoin-volatility-historically-low-levels\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/kanchanara-JswpRvKR-oE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703","datePublished":"2022-10-06T19:00:07+00:00","dateModified":"2024-06-11T11:14:50+00:00","description":"Data shows the Bitcoin 7-day volatility has plunged down recently to pretty low values. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Calm Before The Storm? 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