{"id":506981,"date":"2022-10-19T13:51:24","date_gmt":"2022-10-19T13:51:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=506981"},"modified":"2024-06-11T14:27:44","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:27:44","slug":"how-bitcoin-on-chain-signals-present-a-solid-case-for-a-market-bottom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/how-bitcoin-on-chain-signals-present-a-solid-case-for-a-market-bottom\/","title":{"rendered":"How Bitcoin On-Chain Signals Present A Solid Case For A Market Bottom"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin price<\/a> remains stuck below its former all-time high set five years ago. The shocking decline has been one of the worst crypto winters on record, and the market is bracing for continued meltdown.<\/p>\n

However, a series of on-chain indicators in BTC could provide clues to how close we are to a bottom. Let’s take a look.<\/p>\n

A Series Of Six On-Chain Indicators Shout: Bitcoin Bottom Is In<\/h2>\n

Bear markets<\/a> are brutal in Bitcoin or otherwise, because the bottom is only known in hindsight. The feeling that markets will fall forever, creates a fear that freezes investors from buying at long-term lows.<\/p>\n

Technical analysis<\/a> is one tool that can be used to find oversold conditions or other signals that support the idea of a bottom. Unique to cryptocurrencies, is a subset of quantitative fundamental analysis that focuses on on-chain signals. Several such tools are potentially suggesting a bottom is in.<\/p>\n

Here we have the Puell Multiple. The Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value.<\/p>\n

\"glassnode-studio_bitcoin-puell-multiple-7d-exponential-moving-average\"<\/p>\n

Puell Multiple | Source: glassnode<\/a><\/pre>\n
Bitcoin Reserve Risk is currently demonstrating the most attractive risk\/reward setup ever. Reserve Risk is defined as price \/ HODL Bank. It is used to assess the confidence of long-term holders relative to the price of the native coin at any given point in time.<\/p>\n
\"glassnode-studio_bitcoin-reserve-risk\"<\/p>\n
Bitcoin Reserve Risk | Source: glassnode<\/a><\/pre>\n
In this chart, we have MVRV Z-Score. The MVRV Z-Score is used to assess when Bitcoin is over\/undervalued relative to its “fair value”.<\/p>\n
\"glassnode-studio_bitcoin-mvrv-z-score-7d-exponential-moving-average\"<\/p>\n
MVRV Z-Score | Source: glassnode<\/a><\/pre>\n
Net Realized Losses are the largest ever. Net Realized Profit\/Loss is the net profit or loss of all moved coins, and is defined by the difference of Realized Profit – Realized Loss.<\/p>\n
\"glassnode-studio_bitcoin-net-realized-profit-loss-usd\"<\/p>\n
Net Realized Profit\/Loss | Source: glassnode<\/a><\/pre>\n
The\u00a0Realized Profits-to-Value Ratio is also in the bottom zone. The Realized Profits-to-Value Ratio is defined as the ratio of Realized Profits and Realized Cap. This metric compares profit-taking in the market with its overall cost basis on a dollar-to-dollar basis.<\/p>\n
\"glassnode-studio_bitcoin-realized-profits-to-value-rpv-ratio\"<\/p>\n
Realized Profits-to-Value Ratio | Source: glassnode<\/a><\/pre>\n
Finally, Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss shows capitulation. Interestingly, BTC never quite reached a state of euphoria and greed during the last market top. The dataset is also becoming less volatile over time, much like Bitcoin price itself. Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss.<\/p>\n
\"glassnode-studio_bitcoin-net-unrealized-profit-loss-nupl\"<\/p>\n
Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss | Source: glassnode<\/a><\/pre>\n
While none of these signals confirm the bottom is in for Bitcoin price action, each tool is in a zone that historically has been where past bear markets ended. Should the top cryptocurrency by market cap bottom here, it would be the smallest maximum drawdown in Bitcoin history.<\/p>\n
Follow <\/i><\/b>@TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter<\/i><\/b><\/a> or join\u00a0<\/i><\/b>the TonyTradesBTC Telegram<\/i><\/b><\/a> for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education<\/i><\/b>. Please note: Content is\u00a0educational and should not be\u00a0considered investment advice.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n
Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin price remains stuck below its former all-time high set five years ago. The shocking decline has been one of the worst crypto winters on record, and the market is bracing for continued meltdown. However, a series of on-chain indicators in BTC could provide clues to how close we are to a bottom. Let’s take a look. A Series Of Six On-Chain Indicators Shout: Bitcoin Bottom Is In Bear markets are brutal in Bitcoin or otherwise, because the bottom is only known in hindsight. The feeling that markets will fall forever, creates a fear that freezes investors from buying at long-term lows. Technical analysis is one tool that can be used to find oversold conditions or other signals that support the idea of a bottom. Unique to cryptocurrencies, is a subset of quantitative fundamental analysis that focuses on on-chain signals. Several such tools are potentially suggesting a bottom is in. Here we have the Puell Multiple. The Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value. Puell Multiple | Source: glassnode Bitcoin Reserve Risk is currently demonstrating the most attractive risk\/reward setup ever. Reserve Risk is defined as price \/ HODL Bank. It is used to assess the confidence of long-term holders relative to the price of the native coin at any given point in time. Bitcoin Reserve Risk | Source: glassnode In this chart, we have MVRV Z-Score. The MVRV Z-Score is used to assess when Bitcoin is over\/undervalued relative to its “fair value”. MVRV Z-Score | Source: glassnode Net Realized Losses are the largest ever. Net Realized Profit\/Loss is the net profit or loss of all moved coins, and is defined by the difference of Realized Profit – Realized Loss. Net Realized Profit\/Loss | Source: glassnode The\u00a0Realized Profits-to-Value Ratio is also in the bottom zone. The Realized Profits-to-Value Ratio is defined as the ratio of Realized Profits and Realized Cap. This metric compares profit-taking in the market with its overall cost basis on a dollar-to-dollar basis. Realized Profits-to-Value Ratio | Source: glassnode Finally, Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss shows capitulation. Interestingly, BTC never quite reached a state of euphoria and greed during the last market top. The dataset is also becoming less volatile over time, much like Bitcoin price itself. Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss | Source: glassnode While none of these signals confirm the bottom is in for Bitcoin price action, each tool is in a zone that historically has been where past bear markets ended. Should the top cryptocurrency by market cap bottom here, it would be the smallest maximum drawdown in Bitcoin history. Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join\u00a0the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is\u00a0educational and should not be\u00a0considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":517,"featured_media":507002,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1119,1144,78790,6664,4524,76835],"class_list":["post-506981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-btcusdt","tag-crypto","tag-xbt","tag-xbtusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHow Bitcoin On-Chain Signals Present A Solid Case For A Market Bottom<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin price remains stuck below its former all-time high set five years ago. 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As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market. A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony\u2019s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements. Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions. In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony\u2019s expertise to guide their trading strategies. Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies. Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders. His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics. Tony\u2019s nickname, \"The Bull,\" aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. 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