{"id":514445,"date":"2023-01-02T18:00:15","date_gmt":"2023-01-02T23:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=514445"},"modified":"2023-03-08T07:25:43","modified_gmt":"2023-03-08T07:25:43","slug":"crypto-holiday-past-future-with-ben-lilly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/interview\/crypto-holiday-past-future-with-ben-lilly\/","title":{"rendered":"A Crypto Holiday Special: Past, Present, And Future With Ben Lilly"},"content":{"rendered":"

2022 is coming to an end, and our staff at NewsBTC decided to launch this Crypto Holiday Special to provide some perspective on the crypto industry. We will talk with multiple guests to understand this year\u2019s highs and lows for crypto.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Related Reading: A Crypto Holiday Special: Past, Present, And Future With Blofin<\/a><\/div>\n

In the spirit of Charles Dicken\u2019s classic, \u201cA Christmas Carol,\u201d we\u2019ll look into crypto from different angles, look at its possible trajectory for 2023 and find common ground amongst these different views of an industry that might support the future of finances.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ben Lilly: \u201c (\u2026) for fundamentals\u2026 Nothing has changed. If anything, builders are building faster than ever before. All of us veterans know that right now are the most productive weeks you can have in crypto. It is a blessing to those that can weather such bearish times.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

And now, for a bonus round, we spoke with Ben Lilly, Co-Founder at Jarvis Labs,<\/a> the on-chain analytics and token design firm tracking the crypto market. Lilly offered his views on the industry\u2019s current state, why the Bear Market must be used as a time for building, and why the nascent class has matured. This is what he told us:<\/p>\n

Q: What\u2019s the most significant difference for the crypto market today compared to Christmas 2021? Beyond the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others, what changed from that moment of euphoria to today\u2019s perpetual fear? Has there been a decline in adoption and liquidity? Are fundamentals still valid? <\/strong><\/p>\n

A: In December 2021 we were discussing whether or not the U.S. Federal Reserve would follow through on rate hikes in the face of bubbling inflation. A year later, what we\u2019ve seen is a strategic push on saying they will take two steps, and instead take three in a hawkish\/bearish manner. It has not only hurt markets, but ensured markets could not find any solid footing to build momentum on.<\/p>\n

This mentality led to a rapid hiking regime. The down wind effects were dollars as a currency were the asset to hold. And most everything else lost value to the dollar.<\/p>\n

A lot of people like to say Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets \u201clost value\u201d. This is a misnomer. We price things in U.S. dollars, and relative to the dollar, these assets lost considerable value.<\/p>\n

What a lot of people are also slowly realizing is that most participants in crypto markets are and were speculators. This is rather unfortunate, in my opinion. And something I look to track better with data.<\/p>\n

The drop in speculators (and many market makers closing up shops) has left a significant hole in liquidity. We are well aware of this. It is very difficult for market makers to run smoothly on some second tier exchanges as the books are pretty dry. We understand this well as we began to explore market making since our team has run autonomous trading systems for half a decade now. Clients are asking us more now than ever to do market making, so our team has begun ramping up these operations for 2023.<\/p>\n

As for fundamentals\u2026 Nothing has changed. If anything, builders are building faster than ever before. All of us veterans know that right now are the most productive weeks you can have in crypto. It is a blessing to those that can weather such bearish times. I\u2019m seeing some really impressive tech solutions coming to fruition right now. Our team is testing some of them currently and look to broaden our functionality onchain in the coming months \u2013 something we\u2019ve been exploring for years now. To us, it\u2019s a testament to the fundamentals of the industry only getting better.<\/p>\n

Q: What are the dominant narratives driving this change in market conditions? And what should be the narrative today? What are most people overlooking? We saw a major crypto exchange blowing up, a hedge fund thought to be untouchable, and an ecosystem that promised a financial utopia. Is Crypto still the future of finance, or should the community pursue a new vision?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: Operations that take place onchain are becoming more desirable than before. Our clients are pushing us in this direction, which tells us the don\u2019t trust, verify mentality is becoming more prominent. I love hearing this and hope to push everything we do to be fully onchain in the years to come.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll put it this way, never would I have imagined our team would be looking into zero knowledge technology to run part of our operations. To put it simply, the vision is the same, just more crystallized \u2013 a process that will keep happening as years pass.<\/p>\n

Q: If you must choose one, what do you think was a significant moment for crypto in 2022? And will the industry feel its consequences across 2023? Where do you see the industry next Christmas? Will it survive this winter? Mainstream is once again declaring the death of the industry. Will they finally get it right? <\/strong><\/p>\n

A: The significant moment was GBTC sliding into negative NAV.<\/p>\n

As the tide was pulled out in 2022, we learned what was really happening in the waters of crypto, and we see many blowups having origins with the Grayscale Trust product.<\/p>\n

Three Arrows Capital, Genesis, DCG, BlockFi, Voyager, and others were all associated with the Trust and as the value of the Trust was more than the worth of all the shares outstanding (negative NAV), market dynamics caused spot demand to wane around April 2021.<\/p>\n

The timing with this and what the U.S. Federal Reserve did with rate hikes was like a double edge sword where both edges were pointed in the same direction. Higher rates and lower spot demand due to a toxic Grayscale product meant the bear market sword cut twice as much.<\/p>\n

As for 2023, I still think some of the worst is yet to come. I\u2019m not necessarily referring to price here. I\u2019m talking about operations not having enough cash to weather the winter. Revenues are down, new entrants to crypto are down. While I think this is good in a way because it rids the industry of poorly run businesses, it\u2019ll cause some headline fears for the industry as companies close their doors.<\/p>\n

It won\u2019t be the end of the industry from my vantage point. Those that have capital have plenty of runway. And even those that don\u2019t have multi-year runways are staffed by very passionate builders. By the end of 2023 we will see the market coming back to life with lots of excitement. I don\u2019t believe it\u2019ll be a full blown bull market by any means\u2026 It\u2019ll be more about projects rolling out the things that they\u2019ve been busy building for the year. You give a bunch of crypto devs a year to build, the results are jaw dropping.<\/p>\n

Q: And, of course, we have to ask; many claim that the FTX collapse is setting the industry back to the 2018 bear market. Back to the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) era, to the so-called “Wild Wild West” days of crypto, what do you think about this idea, and where do you think the industry stands now? More importantly, what is Jarvis’ role in this context, and where do you aim to be in 2023 and beyond?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: Crypto is maturing just like all of us do as we age. You ask anybody who has had ups and downs if they were set back to when they were a younger version of themselves\u2026 Most will say they are much wiser, and often the setbacks is how we truly realize our potential. Crypto is the same.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: A Crypto Holiday Special: Past, Present, And Future With Tony Spilotro<\/a><\/div>\n

We discussed earlier about how onchain solutions are more in demand than ever\u2026 Well the industry had a bad go at centralized entities like FTX, which had one goal of making money, and not contributing to the space.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC’s price moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview<\/strong><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The space will be wiser moving forward. And we hope Jarvis Labs can help push this mindset. Our team has been busy in many verticals. We have teams building software solutions, new metrics, dashboards, token designs, algorithms, and a few other things that we will unveil soon. But if I had to keep it to one role, it\u2019s to help empower everybody to hold crypto to a higher standard. We can be better. Let\u2019s be better.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2022 is coming to an end, and our staff at NewsBTC decided to launch this Crypto Holiday Special to provide some perspective on the crypto industry. We will talk with multiple guests to understand this year\u2019s highs and lows for crypto. Related Reading: A Crypto Holiday Special: Past, Present, And Future With Blofin In the spirit of Charles Dicken\u2019s classic, \u201cA Christmas Carol,\u201d we\u2019ll look into crypto from different angles, look at its possible trajectory for 2023 and find common ground amongst these different views of an industry that might support the future of finances. Ben Lilly: \u201c (\u2026) for fundamentals\u2026 Nothing has changed. If anything, builders are building faster than ever before. All of us veterans know that right now are the most productive weeks you can have in crypto. It is a blessing to those that can weather such bearish times.\u201d And now, for a bonus round, we spoke with Ben Lilly, Co-Founder at Jarvis Labs, the on-chain analytics and token design firm tracking the crypto market. Lilly offered his views on the industry\u2019s current state, why the Bear Market must be used as a time for building, and why the nascent class has matured. This is what he told us: Q: What\u2019s the most significant difference for the crypto market today compared to Christmas 2021? Beyond the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others, what changed from that moment of euphoria to today\u2019s perpetual fear? Has there been a decline in adoption and liquidity? Are fundamentals still valid? A: In December 2021 we were discussing whether or not the U.S. Federal Reserve would follow through on rate hikes in the face of bubbling inflation. A year later, what we\u2019ve seen is a strategic push on saying they will take two steps, and instead take three in a hawkish\/bearish manner. It has not only hurt markets, but ensured markets could not find any solid footing to build momentum on. This mentality led to a rapid hiking regime. The down wind effects were dollars as a currency were the asset to hold. And most everything else lost value to the dollar. A lot of people like to say Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets \u201clost value\u201d. This is a misnomer. We price things in U.S. dollars, and relative to the dollar, these assets lost considerable value. What a lot of people are also slowly realizing is that most participants in crypto markets are and were speculators. This is rather unfortunate, in my opinion. And something I look to track better with data. The drop in speculators (and many market makers closing up shops) has left a significant hole in liquidity. We are well aware of this. It is very difficult for market makers to run smoothly on some second tier exchanges as the books are pretty dry. We understand this well as we began to explore market making since our team has run autonomous trading systems for half a decade now. Clients are asking us more now than ever to do market making, so our team has begun ramping up these operations for 2023. As for fundamentals\u2026 Nothing has changed. If anything, builders are building faster than ever before. All of us veterans know that right now are the most productive weeks you can have in crypto. It is a blessing to those that can weather such bearish times. I\u2019m seeing some really impressive tech solutions coming to fruition right now. Our team is testing some of them currently and look to broaden our functionality onchain in the coming months \u2013 something we\u2019ve been exploring for years now. To us, it\u2019s a testament to the fundamentals of the industry only getting better. Q: What are the dominant narratives driving this change in market conditions? And what should be the narrative today? What are most people overlooking? We saw a major crypto exchange blowing up, a hedge fund thought to be untouchable, and an ecosystem that promised a financial utopia. Is Crypto still the future of finance, or should the community pursue a new vision? A: Operations that take place onchain are becoming more desirable than before. Our clients are pushing us in this direction, which tells us the don\u2019t trust, verify mentality is becoming more prominent. I love hearing this and hope to push everything we do to be fully onchain in the years to come. I\u2019ll put it this way, never would I have imagined our team would be looking into zero knowledge technology to run part of our operations. To put it simply, the vision is the same, just more crystallized \u2013 a process that will keep happening as years pass. Q: If you must choose one, what do you think was a significant moment for crypto in 2022? And will the industry feel its consequences across 2023? Where do you see the industry next Christmas? Will it survive this winter? Mainstream is once again declaring the death of the industry. Will they finally get it right? A: The significant moment was GBTC sliding into negative NAV. As the tide was pulled out in 2022, we learned what was really happening in the waters of crypto, and we see many blowups having origins with the Grayscale Trust product. Three Arrows Capital, Genesis, DCG, BlockFi, Voyager, and others were all associated with the Trust and as the value of the Trust was more than the worth of all the shares outstanding (negative NAV), market dynamics caused spot demand to wane around April 2021. The timing with this and what the U.S. Federal Reserve did with rate hikes was like a double edge sword where both edges were pointed in the same direction. Higher rates and lower spot demand due to a toxic Grayscale product meant the bear market sword cut twice as much. As for 2023, I still think some of the worst is yet to come. I\u2019m not necessarily referring to price here. I\u2019m talking about operations not having enough cash to weather the winter. Revenues are down, new entrants to crypto are down. While I think this is good in a way because it rids the industry of poorly run businesses, it\u2019ll cause some headline fears for the industry as companies close their doors. It won\u2019t be the end of the industry from my vantage point. Those that have capital have plenty of runway. And even those that don\u2019t have multi-year runways are staffed by very passionate builders. By the end of 2023 we will see the market coming back to life with lots of excitement. I don\u2019t believe it\u2019ll be a full blown bull market by any means\u2026 It\u2019ll be more about projects rolling out the things that they\u2019ve been busy building for the year. You give a bunch of crypto devs a year to build, the results are jaw dropping. Q: And, of course, we have to ask; many claim that the FTX collapse is setting the industry back to the 2018 bear market. Back to the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) era, to the so-called “Wild Wild West” days of crypto, what do you think about this idea, and where do you think the industry stands now? More importantly, what is Jarvis’ role in this context, and where do you aim to be in 2023 and beyond? A: Crypto is maturing just like all of us do as we age. You ask anybody who has had ups and downs if they were set back to when they were a younger version of themselves\u2026 Most will say they are much wiser, and often the setbacks is how we truly realize our potential. Crypto is the same. Related Reading: A Crypto Holiday Special: Past, Present, And Future With Tony Spilotro We discussed earlier about how onchain solutions are more in demand than ever\u2026 Well the industry had a bad go at centralized entities like FTX, which had one goal of making money, and not contributing to the space. The space will be wiser moving forward. And we hope Jarvis Labs can help push this mindset. Our team has been busy in many verticals. We have teams building software solutions, new metrics, dashboards, token designs, algorithms, and a few other things that we will unveil soon. But if I had to keep it to one role, it\u2019s to help empower everybody to hold crypto to a higher standard. We can be better. Let\u2019s be better.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":535,"featured_media":513595,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12262],"tags":[428,1119,78790,6664,78803,9892],"class_list":["post-514445","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interview","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-btcusdt","tag-crypto","tag-ethusdt","tag-holiday"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA Crypto Holiday Special: Past, Present, And Future With Ben Lilly<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"2022 is coming to an end, and our staff at NewsBTC decided to launch this Crypto Holiday Special to provide some perspective on the crypto i 2023-01-02\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide. In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride. He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times. In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson\u2019s \u2018Neuromancer.\u2019 The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau\u2019s \u2018Civil Disobedience.\u2019 But that\u2019s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term. In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry. Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. 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His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide. In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride. He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times. In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson\u2019s \u2018Neuromancer.\u2019 The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau\u2019s \u2018Civil Disobedience.\u2019 But that\u2019s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term. In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry. Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. 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