{"id":515351,"date":"2023-01-09T10:00:57","date_gmt":"2023-01-09T15:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=515351"},"modified":"2023-04-11T14:50:06","modified_gmt":"2023-04-11T14:50:06","slug":"ethereum-realized-volatility-drops-rare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/ethereum\/ethereum-realized-volatility-drops-rare\/","title":{"rendered":"Ethereum 1-Month Realized Volatility Drops To Rare Level Seen Only Thrice In History"},"content":{"rendered":"

On-chain data shows that Ethereum realized volatility has now declined to rare levels observed only three times before in history.<\/p>\n

Ethereum 1-Month Realized Volatility Has Plummeted To Just 39.8%<\/h2>\n

As per data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode<\/a>, the month of December 2022 was historically quiet for both Ethereum and Bitcoin. The “realized volatility<\/a>” is an indicator that measures the standard deviation of daily returns from the mean for the market in question.<\/p>\n

The indicator is usually taken over a rolling window, with the one-week and one-month versions being generally the most useful timespans for it. In the context of the current discussion, the relevant metric is the one-month realized volatility.<\/p>\n

When the value of the metric is high, it means the asset’s price has been showing greater fluctuations from the average recently. Such a trend implies that the market is providing a high trading risk currently. On the other hand, low values suggest returns haven’t deviated much from the mean, and hence that the price has been stuck in stale consolidation.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Depositing Transactions At 4-Year Low, Bottom Signal?<\/a><\/div>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the one-month Ethereum realized volatility over the last few years:<\/p>\n

\"Ethereum<\/p>\n

Looks like the value of the metric has declined in recent days | Source: Glassnode on Twitter<\/a><\/pre>\n
As displayed in the above graph, the Ethereum one-month realized volatility has plunged to just 39.8% recently, suggesting that the past month has had very little diversity in day-to-day returns. This current level of the indicator is actually a historically low value, and as is apparent from the chart, there have only been three instances in the history of the crypto where the price has been this stable.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: This Week In Bitcoin And Crypto: Key Dates To Watch<\/a><\/div>\n
Interestingly, after each occurrence of the volatility hitting these lows, the price has made a sharp move and the indicator has jumped back up. An important example of this was back in November 2018<\/a>, when the value of ETH collapsed toward the bottom of the bear market in a sudden move, after the metric had reached these rare levels.<\/p>\n
Glassnode also points out that, just like for Ethereum, the one-month realized volatility for Bitcoin has also plunged to historical lows recently, as the below chart highlights.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
The value of the metric seems to have hit very low values recently | Source: Glassnode on Twitter<\/a><\/pre>\n
As you can see above, the Bitcoin one-month realized volatility has only been lower than the current value (24.6%) a few times in the entire history of the crypto. A notable instance here was also in November 2018, where, just like ETH, BTC crashed down to form its bottom.<\/p>\n
If these historical trends are anything to consider, then the current extremely low values in the one-month volatility for Ethereum and Bitcoin could mean both the cryptos may soon see a significant spike in the metric soon, but the accompanying price move could be toward either direction.<\/p>\n
ETH Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Ethereum’s price<\/a> floats around $1,300, up 8% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Ethereum<\/p>\n
ETH has shot up during the past day | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
On-chain data shows that Ethereum realized volatility has now declined to rare levels observed only three times before in history. Ethereum 1-Month Realized Volatility Has Plummeted To Just 39.8% As per data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the month of December 2022 was historically quiet for both Ethereum and Bitcoin. The “realized volatility” is an indicator that measures the standard deviation of daily returns from the mean for the market in question. The indicator is usually taken over a rolling window, with the one-week and one-month versions being generally the most useful timespans for it. In the context of the current discussion, the relevant metric is the one-month realized volatility. When the value of the metric is high, it means the asset’s price has been showing greater fluctuations from the average recently. Such a trend implies that the market is providing a high trading risk currently. On the other hand, low values suggest returns haven’t deviated much from the mean, and hence that the price has been stuck in stale consolidation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Depositing Transactions At 4-Year Low, Bottom Signal? Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the one-month Ethereum realized volatility over the last few years: Looks like the value of the metric has declined in recent days | Source: Glassnode on Twitter As displayed in the above graph, the Ethereum one-month realized volatility has plunged to just 39.8% recently, suggesting that the past month has had very little diversity in day-to-day returns. This current level of the indicator is actually a historically low value, and as is apparent from the chart, there have only been three instances in the history of the crypto where the price has been this stable. Related Reading: This Week In Bitcoin And Crypto: Key Dates To Watch Interestingly, after each occurrence of the volatility hitting these lows, the price has made a sharp move and the indicator has jumped back up. An important example of this was back in November 2018, when the value of ETH collapsed toward the bottom of the bear market in a sudden move, after the metric had reached these rare levels. Glassnode also points out that, just like for Ethereum, the one-month realized volatility for Bitcoin has also plunged to historical lows recently, as the below chart highlights. The value of the metric seems to have hit very low values recently | Source: Glassnode on Twitter As you can see above, the Bitcoin one-month realized volatility has only been lower than the current value (24.6%) a few times in the entire history of the crypto. A notable instance here was also in November 2018, where, just like ETH, BTC crashed down to form its bottom. If these historical trends are anything to consider, then the current extremely low values in the one-month volatility for Ethereum and Bitcoin could mean both the cryptos may soon see a significant spike in the metric soon, but the accompanying price move could be toward either direction. ETH Price At the time of writing, Ethereum’s price floats around $1,300, up 8% in the last week. ETH has shot up during the past day | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":515363,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13625],"tags":[8323,1946,87552,87559,8686],"class_list":["post-515351","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ethereum","tag-eth","tag-ethereum","tag-ethereum-1-month-realized-volatility","tag-ethereum-realized-volatility","tag-ethusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEthereum 1-Month Realized Volatility Drops To Rare Level Seen Only Thrice In History<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On-chain data shows that Ethereum realized volatility has now declined to rare levels observed only three times before in history. 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Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Ethereum 1-Month Realized Volatility Drops To Rare Level Seen Only Thrice In History","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/ethereum\/ethereum-realized-volatility-drops-rare\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/ethereum\/ethereum-realized-volatility-drops-rare\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/kanchanara-jpsocjU9R7s-unsplash-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/kanchanara-jpsocjU9R7s-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703"},"articleSection":"Ethereum","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["eth","ethereum","ethereum 1-month realized volatility","ethereum realized volatility","ethusd"],"dateCreated":"2023-01-09T15:00:57Z","datePublished":"2023-01-09T15:00:57Z","dateModified":"2023-04-11T14:50:06Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Ethereum 1-Month Realized Volatility Drops To Rare Level Seen Only Thrice In History\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/ethereum\\\/ethereum-realized-volatility-drops-rare\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/ethereum\\\/ethereum-realized-volatility-drops-rare\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/01\\\/kanchanara-jpsocjU9R7s-unsplash-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/01\\\/kanchanara-jpsocjU9R7s-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703\"},\"articleSection\":\"Ethereum\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"eth\",\"ethereum\",\"ethereum 1-month realized volatility\",\"ethereum realized volatility\",\"ethusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-01-09T15:00:57Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-01-09T15:00:57Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-11T14:50:06Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/kanchanara-jpsocjU9R7s-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/515351"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=515351"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/515351\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/515363"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=515351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=515351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=515351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}