{"id":518915,"date":"2023-02-07T13:32:58","date_gmt":"2023-02-07T13:32:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=518915"},"modified":"2024-06-11T14:32:16","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:32:16","slug":"bitcoin-on-chain-historical-resistance-btc-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-on-chain-historical-resistance-btc-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"This Bitcoin On-Chain Metric Is At A Historical Resistance, Will BTC Decline?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This Bitcoin on-chain metric is currently at a level that has historically provided resistance. Will BTC decline after this retest this time as well?<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Is At The &#8220;Sell&#8221; Level<\/h2>\n<p>As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/quicktake\/63e16281caf95a5890677155-Short-term-Holders-approach-the-sell-level\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">post<\/a>, the bitcoin price has fallen at this level in the past. The indicator of interest here is the &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-asopr-bull-bear-resistance-break\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Spent Output Profit Ratio<\/a>,&#8221; which measures the ratio between the total profits and the total losses that Bitcoin investors are realizing with their selling right now.<\/p>\n<p>When the ratio has a value lower than 1, it means the average investor is selling their coins at some amount of loss currently. On the contrary, the metric having higher values than this mark suggests the market as a whole has been displaying profit realization behavior recently.<\/p>\n<p>Now, there is a cohort called the &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-short-term-holder-profit-nov-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">short-term holder<\/a>&#8221; (STH) group in the market, which includes all holders that acquired their coins within the last 155 days. The alternate group is called the &#8220;long-term holder&#8221; (LTH) cohort, to which STHs mature when the age of their coins becomes more than 155 days.<\/p>\n<p>The SOPR discussed above was for the entire market, but it can also separately be defined for any investor segment.<\/p>\n<p>Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SOPR specifically for the STHs over the last few years:<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.cryptoquant.com\/331846\/quicktake\/r2DnZLU_bb5a7aa36309c8ec1082b5d6581e91f609c6699bc097b6bbbaed0187f91f4306.png?resize=1280%2C553&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR\" width=\"1280\" height=\"553\"><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">The value of the metric seems to have risen in recent days | Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/quicktake\/63e16281caf95a5890677155-Short-term-Holders-approach-the-sell-level\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">CryptoQuant<\/a><\/pre>\n<p>In the above graph, the version of the Bitcoin STH SOPR displayed is actually the 100-day ALMA, which is a type of <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/sponsored\/how-beginners-can-leverage-moving-average-to-profit-from-cryptocurrency\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">moving average<\/a> (MA). The quant has marked the important lines for the indicator.<\/p>\n<p>It looks like the value equal to 1 line has generally provided resistance to the metric whenever it has been below the level. This makes sense as the mark acts as a break-even level for the market since the profit being realized is exactly equal to the loss being realized here.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-small-addresses-rapidly-growing-means\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Bitcoin Small Addresses Have Been Rapidly Growing, Here\u2019s What It Means<\/a><\/div>\n<p>Investors find this point ideal for exiting, so a large amount of selling takes place here, and thus the price of the cryptocurrency feels some resistance. With the latest rally, however, the coin seems to have overcome this resistance.<\/p>\n<p>Now the metric has surged to the 1.02 level. From the chart, it&#8217;s apparent that Bitcoin has previously faced resistance at this level as well. The latest example of Bitcoin finding rejection here was back in November 2021, when the BTC price formed its current all-time high.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/shiba-inu\/shiba-inu3-hit-flipped-polkadot-market-cap\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Shiba Inu Takes 3% Hit, Gets Flipped By Polkadot In Market Cap<\/a><\/div>\n<p>If the level acting as resistance historically is anything to go by, then the STH SOPR arriving at this level may be bad news for the current rally, as the price could face a decline following a potential rejection here.<\/p>\n<h2>BTC Price<\/h2>\n<p>At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $23,000, up 1% in the last week.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-518921 size-large aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/chart-7.png?resize=860%2C312\" alt=\"Bitcoin Price Chart\" width=\"860\" height=\"312\"><\/p>\n<pre style=\"text-align: center\">Looks like the value of the asset has dropped off in the last few days | Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSD\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n<div class=\"disclaimer-shortcode\">Featured image from Hans-Jurgen Mager on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This Bitcoin on-chain metric is currently at a level that has historically provided resistance. Will BTC decline after this retest this time as well? Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Is At The &#8220;Sell&#8221; Level As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the bitcoin price has fallen at this level in the past. The indicator of interest here is the &#8220;Spent Output Profit Ratio,&#8221; which measures the ratio between the total profits and the total losses that Bitcoin investors are realizing with their selling right now. When the ratio has a value lower than 1, it means the average investor is selling their coins at some amount of loss currently. On the contrary, the metric having higher values than this mark suggests the market as a whole has been displaying profit realization behavior recently. Now, there is a cohort called the &#8220;short-term holder&#8221; (STH) group in the market, which includes all holders that acquired their coins within the last 155 days. The alternate group is called the &#8220;long-term holder&#8221; (LTH) cohort, to which STHs mature when the age of their coins becomes more than 155 days. The SOPR discussed above was for the entire market, but it can also separately be defined for any investor segment. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SOPR specifically for the STHs over the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have risen in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant In the above graph, the version of the Bitcoin STH SOPR displayed is actually the 100-day ALMA, which is a type of moving average (MA). The quant has marked the important lines for the indicator. It looks like the value equal to 1 line has generally provided resistance to the metric whenever it has been below the level. This makes sense as the mark acts as a break-even level for the market since the profit being realized is exactly equal to the loss being realized here. Related Reading: Bitcoin Small Addresses Have Been Rapidly Growing, Here\u2019s What It Means Investors find this point ideal for exiting, so a large amount of selling takes place here, and thus the price of the cryptocurrency feels some resistance. With the latest rally, however, the coin seems to have overcome this resistance. Now the metric has surged to the 1.02 level. From the chart, it&#8217;s apparent that Bitcoin has previously faced resistance at this level as well. The latest example of Bitcoin finding rejection here was back in November 2021, when the BTC price formed its current all-time high. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Takes 3% Hit, Gets Flipped By Polkadot In Market Cap If the level acting as resistance historically is anything to go by, then the STH SOPR arriving at this level may be bad news for the current rally, as the price could face a decline following a potential rejection here. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $23,000, up 1% in the last week. Looks like the value of the asset has dropped off in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Hans-Jurgen Mager on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":518922,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,512,717,84852,84438,87789,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-518915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-decline","tag-bitcoin-resistance","tag-bitcoin-short-term-holders","tag-bitcoin-sopr","tag-bitcoin-sths","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>This Bitcoin On-Chain Metric Is At A Historical Resistance, Will BTC Decline?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This Bitcoin on-chain metric is currently at a level that has historically provided resistance. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"This Bitcoin On-Chain Metric Is At A Historical Resistance, Will BTC Decline?","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-on-chain-historical-resistance-btc-decline\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-on-chain-historical-resistance-btc-decline\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/hans-jurgen-mager-qQWV91TTBrE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/hans-jurgen-mager-qQWV91TTBrE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1707"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin decline","bitcoin resistance","bitcoin short-term holders","bitcoin sopr","bitcoin sths","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2023-02-07T13:32:58Z","datePublished":"2023-02-07T13:32:58Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T14:32:16Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"This Bitcoin On-Chain Metric Is At A Historical Resistance, Will BTC Decline?\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-on-chain-historical-resistance-btc-decline\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-on-chain-historical-resistance-btc-decline\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/hans-jurgen-mager-qQWV91TTBrE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/hans-jurgen-mager-qQWV91TTBrE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1707\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin decline\",\"bitcoin resistance\",\"bitcoin short-term holders\",\"bitcoin sopr\",\"bitcoin sths\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-02-07T13:32:58Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-02-07T13:32:58Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T14:32:16Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/hans-jurgen-mager-qQWV91TTBrE-unsplash-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1707","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/518915"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=518915"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/518915\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/518922"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=518915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=518915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=518915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}