{"id":519457,"date":"2023-02-13T13:30:26","date_gmt":"2023-02-13T13:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/?p=519457"},"modified":"2024-06-11T10:08:48","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T10:08:48","slug":"bitcoin-nupl-retests-key-support-btc-rebound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-nupl-retests-key-support-btc-rebound\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin NUPL Retests Key Support, Will BTC Rebound?"},"content":{"rendered":"

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss (NUPL) is currently nearing a key retest. Will this help BTC rebound?<\/p>\n

Bitcoin NUPL Has Been Declining Towards 365-Day MA Recently<\/h2>\n

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post<\/a>, the BTC NUPL is approaching a retest of the 365-day MA right now. The “NUPL<\/a>” is an indicator that tells us about the total amount of unrealized profit or loss that the Bitcoin market as a whole currently holds.<\/p>\n

“Unrealized” here refers to the profit or loss of a coin that is yet to be locked in, as the investor is still holding the coin. If the coin was to be sold, however, the unrealized profit or loss it was carrying would then become “realized.”<\/p>\n

The metric’s value is calculated by first taking the difference between the market cap and the realized cap<\/a> (the realized cap being a fair value model for the cryptocurrency) and then dividing it by the market cap.<\/p>\n

When the value of the indicator is greater than zero, it means the market cap is more than the realized cap right now, and hence, there is a higher amount of profit than loss among investors currently. On the other hand, negative values imply losses dominate the market at the moment.<\/p>\n

Naturally, the NUPL having a value exactly equal to zero suggests the amount of profit is exactly making up for the amount of loss being held by the holders currently.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: IMF Says El Salvador Should Avoid Trading Bitcoin Bonds \u2013 Here\u2019s Why<\/a><\/div>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL, as well as in its 365-day moving average (MA) over the last few years:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

The value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/pre>\n
As shown in the above graph, the Bitcoin NUPL shot up and crossed the 0 level last month as the price of the cryptocurrency rallied. This means that due to the surge in BTC’s value, the average investor had come into a state of unrealized profit.<\/p>\n
In this rapid increase, the indicator had also successfully managed to break above its 365-day MA. This was reminiscent of the April 2019 rally<\/a>, where the NUPL had displayed a similar break.<\/p>\n
However, unlike the April 2019 rally, the current one looks to have failed to cross above the 0.15-0.25 zone (which has offered resistance historically) and the metric is now plunging back down.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross Forms In The Weekly Chart, More Losses Expected?<\/a><\/div>\n
Following this rejection, the Bitcoin NUPL is now once again near its yearly MA. This level has generally acted as support during periods of a bullish trend, so if the current market is truly transitioning away from a bear market (like in April 2019), then the retest should hold and help the price rebound.<\/p>\n
The quant notes that if the rebound is successful, a break above the aforementioned 0.15-0.25 resistance zone would still be needed to confirm a “solid” bullish momentum.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $21,600, down 5% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
Looks like BTC has been consolidating since the decline | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss (NUPL) is currently nearing a key retest. Will this help BTC rebound? Bitcoin NUPL Has Been Declining Towards 365-Day MA Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC NUPL is approaching a retest of the 365-day MA right now. The “NUPL” is an indicator that tells us about the total amount of unrealized profit or loss that the Bitcoin market as a whole currently holds. “Unrealized” here refers to the profit or loss of a coin that is yet to be locked in, as the investor is still holding the coin. If the coin was to be sold, however, the unrealized profit or loss it was carrying would then become “realized.” The metric’s value is calculated by first taking the difference between the market cap and the realized cap (the realized cap being a fair value model for the cryptocurrency) and then dividing it by the market cap. When the value of the indicator is greater than zero, it means the market cap is more than the realized cap right now, and hence, there is a higher amount of profit than loss among investors currently. On the other hand, negative values imply losses dominate the market at the moment. Naturally, the NUPL having a value exactly equal to zero suggests the amount of profit is exactly making up for the amount of loss being held by the holders currently. Related Reading: IMF Says El Salvador Should Avoid Trading Bitcoin Bonds \u2013 Here\u2019s Why Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL, as well as in its 365-day moving average (MA) over the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As shown in the above graph, the Bitcoin NUPL shot up and crossed the 0 level last month as the price of the cryptocurrency rallied. This means that due to the surge in BTC’s value, the average investor had come into a state of unrealized profit. In this rapid increase, the indicator had also successfully managed to break above its 365-day MA. This was reminiscent of the April 2019 rally, where the NUPL had displayed a similar break. However, unlike the April 2019 rally, the current one looks to have failed to cross above the 0.15-0.25 zone (which has offered resistance historically) and the metric is now plunging back down. Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross Forms In The Weekly Chart, More Losses Expected? Following this rejection, the Bitcoin NUPL is now once again near its yearly MA. This level has generally acted as support during periods of a bullish trend, so if the current market is truly transitioning away from a bear market (like in April 2019), then the retest should hold and help the price rebound. The quant notes that if the rebound is successful, a break above the aforementioned 0.15-0.25 resistance zone would still be needed to confirm a “solid” bullish momentum. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $21,600, down 5% in the last week. Looks like BTC has been consolidating since the decline | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":519471,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,84916,87825,86576,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-519457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-nupl","tag-bitcoin-rebound","tag-bitcoin-retest","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin NUPL Retests Key Support, Will BTC Rebound?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss (NUPL) is currently nearing a key retest. Will this help BTC rebound? 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Bitcoin NUPL Retests Key Support, Will BTC Rebound?","url":"http:\/\/www.wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-nupl-retests-key-support-btc-rebound\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/www.wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-nupl-retests-key-support-btc-rebound\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin nupl","bitcoin rebound","bitcoin retest","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2023-02-13T13:30:26Z","datePublished":"2023-02-13T13:30:26Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T10:08:48Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Bitcoin NUPL Retests Key Support, Will BTC Rebound?\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-nupl-retests-key-support-btc-rebound\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-nupl-retests-key-support-btc-rebound\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin nupl\",\"bitcoin rebound\",\"bitcoin retest\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-02-13T13:30:26Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-02-13T13:30:26Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T10:08:48Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/kanchanara-rhm7H8X5J98-unsplash-1-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/519457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=519457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/519457\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/519471"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=519457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=519457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=519457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}