{"id":537847,"date":"2023-06-14T11:00:38","date_gmt":"2023-06-14T11:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=537847"},"modified":"2023-06-14T10:56:05","modified_gmt":"2023-06-14T10:56:05","slug":"what-bitcoin-crypto-traders-expect-fomc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/what-bitcoin-crypto-traders-expect-fomc\/","title":{"rendered":"What Bitcoin And Crypto Traders Can Expect From Today’s FOMC Meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bitcoin and crypto market faces the most important event of this week and probably the entire month of June today with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at 2:00 pm EST (release of the interest rate decision) and the following press conference at 2:30 pm EST. For the first time since the Fed started its rate hike cycle in March 2022, an overwhelming majority expect a pause.<\/p>\n

The CME FedWatch tool currently indicates<\/a> a 95.3% probability that there will be no change at today’s meeting. A breather, in other words, keeping interest rates at current levels, would give the central bank more time to observe the effects of its fight against inflation.<\/p>\n

And big banks agree with these expectations. As macro analyst Ted (@tedtalksmacro) shows, only one of nine major banks, namely Citi, expects another 25 basis point rate hike. All other major banks such as Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley expect a pause.<\/p>\n

Most important, therefore, will be the new “dot plot”, the Fed members’ projection of future interest rate path. Any correction to the upside will likely drive equities down and the dollar index (DXY) up, according to the analyst. Bitcoin and crypto are likely to follow this trend.<\/p>\n

\n

Happy hawkish pause day!<\/p>\n

The market gives a 96% probability that the Fed pause today after hiking rates at every meeting since March 2022.<\/p>\n

Major banks agree.<\/p>\n

Most important, will be the new \u2018dot plot\u2019 \u2014> any revisions higher would spook equities lower and the dollar higher. pic.twitter.com\/M8UQkmXoZG<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) June 14, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The US bond market is currently pricing in another rate hike by the Federal Reserve and a rate cut by the end of 2023, as Walter Bloomberg reported<\/a> today. However, it is likely to be more binary, says Michael Contopoulos, director of fixed income at Richard Bernstein Advisors, in a note.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: FUD Or Real: Is Binance Selling Bitcoin To Prop Up BNB?<\/a><\/div>\n

Either the Fed does not cut, or growth falls off so hard it is cutting a lot,” Contopoulos says. His guess is the former. “Higher than expected CPI could very well tilt them to a hike. Otherwise, I think they will pause,” he says.<\/p>\n

The bond market is pricing in 200 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, the expert says, adding that this would mean the recession won’t hit until next year. “I tend to agree with that”.<\/p>\n

However, it is not inconceivable that the Fed could hike further after a pause. As the Bank of Canada (BoC) shows, this is entirely possible. The BoC raised rates again by 25 basis points (to 475 bps) in June after a two-month pause.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Looks Set To Start Recovery Toward $27K, Here\u2019s Why<\/a><\/div>\n

And the probability of another quarter-point rate hike in July is 63%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. In this respect, the dot plot could be the trend-setting indicator today to gauge whether equities as well as Bitcoin and crypto are falling or rising.<\/p>\n

If the dot plot sees any downward revisions, BTC and crypto are likely to start a new upward push. Otherwise, any upward revisions (“higher for longer”) of the projections would be rather bearish.<\/p>\n

And as on-chain analyst Ali Martinez noted today, the Bitcoin price is on thin ice:<\/p>\n

Notice the most important support zone is between $22,785 and $23,595 where 1.34 million wallets hold 450,000 $BTC.\u00a0On the flip side, #BTC faces stiff resistance between $26,000 and $28,250 where 5.18 million wallets bought 2.1 million BTC.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"Bitcoin
In\/Out of the Money Around Price | Source: Twitter @ali_charts<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

At press time, the Bitcoin price remained relatively calm ahead of today’s interest rate decision. In the 1-hour chart, BTC shows a good chance of a breakout from the current mini range (coincides with the $26,250 resistance to the upside of Ali) around the FOMC meeting, which should trigger another round of volatility.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin price set for breakout, 1-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Bitcoin and crypto market faces the most important event of this week and probably the entire month of June today with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at 2:00 pm EST (release of the interest rate decision) and the following press conference at 2:30 pm EST. For the first time since the Fed started its rate hike cycle in March 2022, an overwhelming majority expect a pause. The CME FedWatch tool currently indicates a 95.3% probability that there will be no change at today’s meeting. A breather, in other words, keeping interest rates at current levels, would give the central bank more time to observe the effects of its fight against inflation. And big banks agree with these expectations. As macro analyst Ted (@tedtalksmacro) shows, only one of nine major banks, namely Citi, expects another 25 basis point rate hike. All other major banks such as Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley expect a pause. Most important, therefore, will be the new “dot plot”, the Fed members’ projection of future interest rate path. Any correction to the upside will likely drive equities down and the dollar index (DXY) up, according to the analyst. Bitcoin and crypto are likely to follow this trend. Happy hawkish pause day! The market gives a 96% probability that the Fed pause today after hiking rates at every meeting since March 2022. Major banks agree. Most important, will be the new \u2018dot plot\u2019 \u2014> any revisions higher would spook equities lower and the dollar higher. pic.twitter.com\/M8UQkmXoZG \u2014 tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) June 14, 2023 The US bond market is currently pricing in another rate hike by the Federal Reserve and a rate cut by the end of 2023, as Walter Bloomberg reported today. However, it is likely to be more binary, says Michael Contopoulos, director of fixed income at Richard Bernstein Advisors, in a note. Related Reading: FUD Or Real: Is Binance Selling Bitcoin To Prop Up BNB? Either the Fed does not cut, or growth falls off so hard it is cutting a lot,” Contopoulos says. His guess is the former. “Higher than expected CPI could very well tilt them to a hike. Otherwise, I think they will pause,” he says. The bond market is pricing in 200 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, the expert says, adding that this would mean the recession won’t hit until next year. “I tend to agree with that”. However, it is not inconceivable that the Fed could hike further after a pause. As the Bank of Canada (BoC) shows, this is entirely possible. The BoC raised rates again by 25 basis points (to 475 bps) in June after a two-month pause. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Looks Set To Start Recovery Toward $27K, Here\u2019s Why And the probability of another quarter-point rate hike in July is 63%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. In this respect, the dot plot could be the trend-setting indicator today to gauge whether equities as well as Bitcoin and crypto are falling or rising. If the dot plot sees any downward revisions, BTC and crypto are likely to start a new upward push. Otherwise, any upward revisions (“higher for longer”) of the projections would be rather bearish. And as on-chain analyst Ali Martinez noted today, the Bitcoin price is on thin ice: Notice the most important support zone is between $22,785 and $23,595 where 1.34 million wallets hold 450,000 $BTC.\u00a0On the flip side, #BTC faces stiff resistance between $26,000 and $28,250 where 5.18 million wallets bought 2.1 million BTC. At press time, the Bitcoin price remained relatively calm ahead of today’s interest rate decision. In the 1-hour chart, BTC shows a good chance of a breakout from the current mini range (coincides with the $26,250 resistance to the upside of Ali) around the FOMC meeting, which should trigger another round of volatility. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":537848,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,1119,6664,2007,2084],"class_list":["post-537847","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-crypto","tag-fed","tag-fomc"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Bitcoin And Crypto Traders Can Expect From Today's FOMC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Bitcoin and crypto market faces the most important event of this week and probably the entire month of June today with FOMC meeting.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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Through his extensive work with wncen.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/realJakeSimmons"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/marcusmisiak\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"What Bitcoin And Crypto Traders Can Expect From Today’s FOMC Meeting","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/what-bitcoin-crypto-traders-expect-fomc\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/what-bitcoin-crypto-traders-expect-fomc\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/iStock-1409273628.jpg?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/iStock-1409273628.jpg?fit=2121%2C1414"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Jake Simmons"}],"creator":["Jake Simmons"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","btc","crypto","fed","fomc"],"dateCreated":"2023-06-14T11:00:38Z","datePublished":"2023-06-14T11:00:38Z","dateModified":"2023-06-14T11:00:38Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"What Bitcoin And Crypto Traders Can Expect From Today’s FOMC Meeting\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/what-bitcoin-crypto-traders-expect-fomc\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/what-bitcoin-crypto-traders-expect-fomc\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/06\\\/iStock-1409273628.jpg?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/06\\\/iStock-1409273628.jpg?fit=2121%2C1414\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Jake Simmons\"}],\"creator\":[\"Jake Simmons\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"btc\",\"crypto\",\"fed\",\"fomc\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2023-06-14T11:00:38Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-06-14T11:00:38Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-06-14T11:00:38Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/iStock-1409273628.jpg?fit=2121%2C1414","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/537847","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/571"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=537847"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/537847\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/537848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=537847"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=537847"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=537847"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}