{"id":548237,"date":"2023-08-21T18:00:20","date_gmt":"2023-08-21T18:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=548237"},"modified":"2024-06-11T08:11:16","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T08:11:16","slug":"bitcoin-retest-20500-again-this-pattern-suggest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-retest-20500-again-this-pattern-suggest\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Bitcoin Retest $20,500 Again? This Pattern May Suggest So"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin is forming a pattern that has historically led to the asset retesting a specific line. At present, this level would be found at $20,500.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Has Dropped Below The 200-Day SMA With The Recent Crash<\/h2>\n

A few days back, Bitcoin observed a sharp crash<\/a> that took the cryptocurrency’s price toward the $26,000 mark. As this plummet was already significant, many have wondered whether this was it or if the drawdown will continue.<\/p>\n

An analyst on X, Ali, shared<\/a> a chart that may provide hints about where the asset could be heading next.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

The trend in the realized price and the 200-day SMA for BTC | Source: @ali_charts on X<\/a><\/pre>\n
The analyst has attached the data for two Bitcoin-related metrics in the graph: the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the realized price. The chart shows that the BTC price has dropped below the 200-day SMA (colored in purple) with the latest crash.<\/p>\n
According to the analyst, when the cryptocurrency’s price has crossed below this level during the past ten years, it has often retested the realized price (colored in orange).<\/p>\n
The “realized price<\/a>” here refers to the cost basis or the buying price of the average investor in the BTC market. This means that whenever the cryptocurrency dips below this level, the average holder enters a state of loss. On the other hand, breaks above the line imply a return to profits for most of the market.<\/p>\n
Historically, this metric has had some interesting interactions with the spot price of the coin. During bullish periods, the line has generally supported the asset, while during bearish periods, it has acted as resistance.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Consolidates Losses and At Risk of Fresh Decline To $25K<\/a><\/div>\n
The explanation behind these curious interactions may lie in how the investors’ minds work in each period. In bull markets, the average investor may think that the price will only go up, so whenever the asset drops to its buying price, they accumulate more of the asset.<\/p>\n
Similarly, in bearish trends, the holders may believe the cryptocurrency will only go down, so the price they bought in (their break-even mark) would be the ideal exit opportunity.<\/p>\n
This buying and selling may cause the level to act as support and resistance in the respective regimes. The latest example of this behavior was seen earlier in the year when Bitcoin rebounded off the line back in March.<\/p>\n
As the asset now appears to have broken below the 200-day SMA, it may be heading towards a retest, as has often happened many times in the past.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Here Are The Factors That Could Be Behind The Latest Bitcoin Wipeout<\/a><\/div>\n
Right now, the cost basis of the average investor is $20,500, which means that if BTC is going to touch this line again, a significant drawdown would need to occur.<\/p>\n
If this scenario indeed plays out, then it’s possible that Bitcoin could find a rebound at the realized price once again. A retest failure, however, would be a very concerning sign, as it might signal the return of the bear market<\/a>.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,000, down 11% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
BTC has been moving sideways since the crash | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bitcoin is forming a pattern that has historically led to the asset retesting a specific line. At present, this level would be found at $20,500. Bitcoin Has Dropped Below The 200-Day SMA With The Recent Crash A few days back, Bitcoin observed a sharp crash that took the cryptocurrency’s price toward the $26,000 mark. As this plummet was already significant, many have wondered whether this was it or if the drawdown will continue. An analyst on X, Ali, shared a chart that may provide hints about where the asset could be heading next. The trend in the realized price and the 200-day SMA for BTC | Source: @ali_charts on X The analyst has attached the data for two Bitcoin-related metrics in the graph: the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the realized price. The chart shows that the BTC price has dropped below the 200-day SMA (colored in purple) with the latest crash. According to the analyst, when the cryptocurrency’s price has crossed below this level during the past ten years, it has often retested the realized price (colored in orange). The “realized price” here refers to the cost basis or the buying price of the average investor in the BTC market. This means that whenever the cryptocurrency dips below this level, the average holder enters a state of loss. On the other hand, breaks above the line imply a return to profits for most of the market. Historically, this metric has had some interesting interactions with the spot price of the coin. During bullish periods, the line has generally supported the asset, while during bearish periods, it has acted as resistance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Consolidates Losses and At Risk of Fresh Decline To $25K The explanation behind these curious interactions may lie in how the investors’ minds work in each period. In bull markets, the average investor may think that the price will only go up, so whenever the asset drops to its buying price, they accumulate more of the asset. Similarly, in bearish trends, the holders may believe the cryptocurrency will only go down, so the price they bought in (their break-even mark) would be the ideal exit opportunity. This buying and selling may cause the level to act as support and resistance in the respective regimes. The latest example of this behavior was seen earlier in the year when Bitcoin rebounded off the line back in March. As the asset now appears to have broken below the 200-day SMA, it may be heading towards a retest, as has often happened many times in the past. Related Reading: Here Are The Factors That Could Be Behind The Latest Bitcoin Wipeout Right now, the cost basis of the average investor is $20,500, which means that if BTC is going to touch this line again, a significant drawdown would need to occur. If this scenario indeed plays out, then it’s possible that Bitcoin could find a rebound at the realized price once again. A retest failure, however, would be a very concerning sign, as it might signal the return of the bear market. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,000, down 11% in the last week. BTC has been moving sideways since the crash | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":548257,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,88653,86297,86576,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-548237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-pattern","tag-bitcoin-realized-price","tag-bitcoin-retest","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWill Bitcoin Retest $20,500 Again? This Pattern May Suggest So<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin is forming a pattern that has historically lead it to retest a specific line. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Will Bitcoin Retest $20,500 Again? 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