{"id":564214,"date":"2023-12-06T19:00:10","date_gmt":"2023-12-06T19:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=564214"},"modified":"2024-06-11T09:16:19","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T09:16:19","slug":"bitcoin-overvalued-yet-historical-data-suggests","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-overvalued-yet-historical-data-suggests\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Bitcoin Overvalued Yet? What Historical Data Suggests"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here’s what the data of this historical on-chain indicator suggests regarding whether Bitcoin has become overvalued after its latest uptrend.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Hasn’t Climbed Too High Yet<\/h2>\n

As the Reflexivity Research co-founder pointed out in a post<\/a> on X, the BTC MVRV Z-Score readings have heated up little compared to the values observed in past bull runs.<\/p>\n

The “Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio<\/a>” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The “realized cap<\/a>” refers to a capitalization model for the cryptocurrency that assumes the “true” value of any coin in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Tether (USDT) Cap Approaches $90 Billion: Why This Affects Bitcoin<\/a><\/div>\n

Since the last transaction price of any coin was likely the price at which it changed hands, one way to interpret the realized cap is that it represents the total capital the holders have invested into the asset.<\/p>\n

Since the MVRV ratio compares the market cap (the spot price) against this model, it can tell us whether the investors are holding more value than they put in right now.<\/p>\n

If the investors are holding more than what they bought the coin for (that is, they are in net profits), they might be tempted to sell, and thus, BTC might be likely to see a correction. Similarly, the market being in losses can suggest the cryptocurrency’s price is currently undervalued and might be due to a rebound.<\/p>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Z-Score of the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the history of the coin:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

The value of the metric appears to have been going up in recent days | Source: @WClementeIII on X<\/a><\/pre>\n
The “Z-Score” is a statistical tool used to measure how far a data point is from the mean. In the graph, the analyst has marked two zones for the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score where BTC has attained an overbought\/underbought condition.<\/p>\n
It would appear that historical bottoms in the asset’s price have formed when the metric has dipped inside the green zone. The tops haven’t been so simple, though, as they fluctuate a bit.<\/p>\n
Related Reading: Sleeping Bitcoin Giants Wake Up: Pattern Mirrors 2021 Bull Run<\/a><\/div>\n
One common thing between all tops is that they have occurred at decently high values of the indicator. At such values, the investors make very high profits, so tops naturally become significantly probable.<\/p>\n
The chart shows that the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has been climbing recently as the asset has rallied,<\/a>\u00a0but it’s yet to arrive at levels similar to past tops. “There will be corrections along the way, but zooming out Bitcoin is far from overvalued based on historical readings,” notes the analyst.<\/p>\n
BTC Price<\/h2>\n
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $43,800, up 15% in the last week.<\/p>\n
\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n
Looks like BTC has registered a sharp uptrend over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/pre>\n
Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Here’s what the data of this historical on-chain indicator suggests regarding whether Bitcoin has become overvalued after its latest uptrend. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Hasn’t Climbed Too High Yet As the Reflexivity Research co-founder pointed out in a post on X, the BTC MVRV Z-Score readings have heated up little compared to the values observed in past bull runs. The “Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The “realized cap” refers to a capitalization model for the cryptocurrency that assumes the “true” value of any coin in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. Related Reading: Tether (USDT) Cap Approaches $90 Billion: Why This Affects Bitcoin Since the last transaction price of any coin was likely the price at which it changed hands, one way to interpret the realized cap is that it represents the total capital the holders have invested into the asset. Since the MVRV ratio compares the market cap (the spot price) against this model, it can tell us whether the investors are holding more value than they put in right now. If the investors are holding more than what they bought the coin for (that is, they are in net profits), they might be tempted to sell, and thus, BTC might be likely to see a correction. Similarly, the market being in losses can suggest the cryptocurrency’s price is currently undervalued and might be due to a rebound. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Z-Score of the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the history of the coin: The value of the metric appears to have been going up in recent days | Source: @WClementeIII on X The “Z-Score” is a statistical tool used to measure how far a data point is from the mean. In the graph, the analyst has marked two zones for the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score where BTC has attained an overbought\/underbought condition. It would appear that historical bottoms in the asset’s price have formed when the metric has dipped inside the green zone. The tops haven’t been so simple, though, as they fluctuate a bit. Related Reading: Sleeping Bitcoin Giants Wake Up: Pattern Mirrors 2021 Bull Run One common thing between all tops is that they have occurred at decently high values of the indicator. At such values, the investors make very high profits, so tops naturally become significantly probable. The chart shows that the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has been climbing recently as the asset has rallied,\u00a0but it’s yet to arrive at levels similar to past tops. “There will be corrections along the way, but zooming out Bitcoin is far from overvalued based on historical readings,” notes the analyst. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $43,800, up 15% in the last week. Looks like BTC has registered a sharp uptrend over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":564218,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,84723,86686,87456,6481,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-564214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-mvrv","tag-bitcoin-mvrv-ratio","tag-bitcoin-overvalued","tag-bitcoin-rally","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs Bitcoin Overvalued Yet? 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Is Bitcoin Overvalued Yet? 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