{"id":599478,"date":"2024-03-25T09:15:13","date_gmt":"2024-03-25T09:15:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=599478"},"modified":"2024-03-25T08:42:03","modified_gmt":"2024-03-25T08:42:03","slug":"what-is-macro-crypto-summer-dont-miss-out-says-expert","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/what-is-macro-crypto-summer-dont-miss-out-says-expert\/","title":{"rendered":"What is Macro\/Crypto Summer? Don&#8217;t Miss Out, Says Expert"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RaoulGMI\/status\/01481191\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">thread<\/a> on X (formerly Twitter), Raoul Pal, a renowned trading guru and the founder\/CEO of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, has illuminated the crypto community about the advent of what he terms as the &#8220;Macro\/Crypto Summer.&#8221; This period, according to Pal, is not just a fleeting season but a significant phase in the financial and cryptocurrency markets, deeply rooted in the cyclical nature of the global economy.<\/p>\n<h2>Why The Macro\/Crypto Summer Matters<\/h2>\n<p>Pal elaborates on the concept of the &#8220;Macro Summer,&#8221; explaining it as a pivotal phase in &#8220;The Everything Code&#8221; cycle, closely following the Financial Conditions Index, which historically precedes the cycle by approximately ten months. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index, a key indicator of economic health, often bottoms out during this period, marking the start of GDP growth.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/buy-high-sell-low-fomo-made-this-crypto-trader-lose-6039-sol\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Buy High, Sell Low: FOMO Made This Crypto Trader Lose 6,039 SOL<\/a><\/div>\n<p>Pal&#8217;s thesis draws attention to the &#8220;near-perfect <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/where-are-we-in-this-bitcoin-cycle\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">3 1\/2 year cyclicality<\/a>&#8221; in the ISM business cycle, propelled by liquidity dynamics and the debt refinancing cycle at its core. He\u00a0underscores the significance of liquidity: &#8220;And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022&#8230; macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis.&#8221;<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_599486\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-599486\" style=\"width: 1770px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-599486 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeI2IWXoAAWFZg.jpg?resize=1770%2C1058\" alt=\"Macro crypto summer \" width=\"1770\" height=\"1058\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeI2IWXoAAWFZg.jpg?w=1770 1770w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeI2IWXoAAWFZg.jpg?w=460 460w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeI2IWXoAAWFZg.jpg?w=768 768w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeI2IWXoAAWFZg.jpg?w=860 860w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeI2IWXoAAWFZg.jpg?w=1536 1536w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeI2IWXoAAWFZg.jpg?w=750 750w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeI2IWXoAAWFZg.jpg?w=1140 1140w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-599486\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Marco\/crypto summer: GMI total liquidity index | Source: X @RaoulGMI<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>This<a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/bitcoin-news\/bitcoin-to-over-200000-in-less-than-5-months\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \"> influx of liquidity<\/a> is crucial for tech stocks, which historically thrive during these phases. Yet, it&#8217;s Bitcoin and, more broadly, the cryptocurrency market that exhibit the most dramatic responses. Pal presents staggering growth figures from past Macro Summer and Fall seasons to underscore his point:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Bitcoin:<\/strong> Saw increases of &#8220;2012\/2013: +146x, 2016\/2017: +30x, 2020\/2021: +8x&#8230;&#8221;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ethereum:<\/strong> As an altcoin during the 2016\/2017 and 2020\/2021 cycles, it achieved &#8220;2016\/2017: +1,770x, 2020\/2021: +41x.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Altcoins (excluding ETH):<\/strong> Witnessed an aggregate market cap rise of &#8220;+24x&#8221; in the last cycle.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_599487\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-599487\" style=\"width: 1518px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-599487 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJJzBWsAIQDM5-1.jpg?resize=1518%2C1082\" alt=\"Bitcoin summer\" width=\"1518\" height=\"1082\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJJzBWsAIQDM5-1.jpg?w=1518 1518w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJJzBWsAIQDM5-1.jpg?w=460 460w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJJzBWsAIQDM5-1.jpg?w=768 768w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJJzBWsAIQDM5-1.jpg?w=860 860w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJJzBWsAIQDM5-1.jpg?w=120 120w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJJzBWsAIQDM5-1.jpg?w=350 350w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJJzBWsAIQDM5-1.jpg?w=750 750w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJJzBWsAIQDM5-1.jpg?w=1140 1140w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-599487\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin summer | Source: X @RaoulGMI<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cWild! When we just look at Altcoins ex-ETH (we only have shorter data for the last cycle), the entire market cap rose +24x! And that includes thousands of worthless tokens that didn\u2019t rise, so I\u2019m not just cherry-picking winners here,\u201d Pal remarked.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_599491\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-599491\" style=\"width: 1413px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-599491 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJnFdWoAA6z0C-1.jpg?resize=1413%2C823\" alt=\"Altcoin summer\" width=\"1413\" height=\"823\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJnFdWoAA6z0C-1.jpg?w=1413 1413w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJnFdWoAA6z0C-1.jpg?w=460 460w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJnFdWoAA6z0C-1.jpg?w=768 768w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJnFdWoAA6z0C-1.jpg?w=860 860w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJnFdWoAA6z0C-1.jpg?w=750 750w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeJnFdWoAA6z0C-1.jpg?w=1140 1140w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-599491\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Altcoin summer | Source: X @RaoulGMI<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>DOGE, a popular meme coin, is mentioned by the expert as another prime example of the &#8220;power of Crypto Summer and Fall,&#8221; with its value experiencing significant multipliers &#8211; &#8220;2016\/2017: +136x, 2020\/2021: +370x\u201d &#8211; in the aforementioned cycles.<\/p>\n<p>These figures underline the significant influence of macroeconomic cycles on crypto valuations, with Pal pointing out the alignment of these cycles with <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/when-is-the-next-btc-halving-date-bitcoin-halving-guide\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Bitcoin&#8217;s halving events<\/a>. &#8220;Crypto summer has started and fully develops post-halving,&#8221; he states, highlighting the interconnectedness of these cycles with the broader financial landscape.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/crypto-expert-bitcoin-500000\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Crypto Expert Reveals The Possibility Of Bitcoin Reaching $500,000<\/a><\/div>\n<p>Notably, Pal&#8217;s analysis doesn&#8217;t stop at the past; it looks forward, suggesting that liquidity is expected to rise all the way into the end of 2025. This anticipation is rooted in a complex interplay of global financial mechanisms, including the potential for increased US money printing in response to a massive ramp-up in interest payments and changes in Fed Net Liquidity and the Treasury General Account (TGA).<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWill the US join the summer party? [&#8230;] I know it seems impossible now, but the US is on the verge of a massive ramp-up in interest payments. [&#8230;] at some point \u2013 the balance sheet will stop shrinking, which is enough to unleash liquidity into the system. [&#8230;] I cannot see how they don\u2019t massively expand liquidity, one way or another.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Pal predicts that it won\u2019t be just the US injecting liquidity into the financial systems in the coming months. \u201cI&#8217;ve no idea whether it&#8217;s China, the EU, Japan or the US that drives this or maybe a bit of all. Time will tell,\u201d he remarked.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_599488\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-599488\" style=\"width: 1552px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-599488 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeKjx2XsAA6Pgj-1.jpg?resize=1552%2C1212\" alt=\"GMI total liquidity index\" width=\"1552\" height=\"1212\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeKjx2XsAA6Pgj-1.jpg?w=1552 1552w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeKjx2XsAA6Pgj-1.jpg?w=460 460w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeKjx2XsAA6Pgj-1.jpg?w=768 768w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeKjx2XsAA6Pgj-1.jpg?w=860 860w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeKjx2XsAA6Pgj-1.jpg?w=1536 1536w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeKjx2XsAA6Pgj-1.jpg?w=750 750w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/GJeKjx2XsAA6Pgj-1.jpg?w=1140 1140w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-599488\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">GMI total liquidity index projection | Source: X @RaoulGMI<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Pal attributes his investment strategies, especially in tech and crypto, to the insights gained from The Everything Code. This approach has prepared him for the unfolding Macro Summer, with a keen eye on the altcoin market and the so-called &#8220;Banana Zone.&#8221; He concludes:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>But the bigger game is yet to be played out as Alt season arrives and we fully enter the Banana Zone. The Banana Zone cometh, and it is a huge wealth-generating machine. Patience will be rewarded. In the meantime, don&#8217;t fuck this up. #DFTU<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>At press time, BTC traded at $67,003.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_599489\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-599489\" style=\"width: 3628px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-599489 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/BTCUSD_2024-03-25_09-33-25.png?resize=3628%2C1673\" alt=\"Bitcoin price\" width=\"3628\" height=\"1673\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/BTCUSD_2024-03-25_09-33-25.png?w=3628 3628w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/BTCUSD_2024-03-25_09-33-25.png?w=460 460w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/BTCUSD_2024-03-25_09-33-25.png?w=768 768w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/BTCUSD_2024-03-25_09-33-25.png?w=860 860w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/BTCUSD_2024-03-25_09-33-25.png?w=1536 1536w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/BTCUSD_2024-03-25_09-33-25.png?w=2048 2048w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/BTCUSD_2024-03-25_09-33-25.png?w=750 750w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/BTCUSD_2024-03-25_09-33-25.png?w=1140 1140w, https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/BTCUSD_2024-03-25_09-33-25.png?w=3000 3000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-599489\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin price, 4-hour chart | Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/Eze2ploD\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"disclaimer-shortcode\">Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a thread on X (formerly Twitter), Raoul Pal, a renowned trading guru and the founder\/CEO of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, has illuminated the crypto community about the advent of what he terms as the &#8220;Macro\/Crypto Summer.&#8221; This period, according to Pal, is not just a fleeting season but a significant phase in the financial and cryptocurrency markets, deeply rooted in the cyclical nature of the global economy. Why The Macro\/Crypto Summer Matters Pal elaborates on the concept of the &#8220;Macro Summer,&#8221; explaining it as a pivotal phase in &#8220;The Everything Code&#8221; cycle, closely following the Financial Conditions Index, which historically precedes the cycle by approximately ten months. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index, a key indicator of economic health, often bottoms out during this period, marking the start of GDP growth. Related Reading: Buy High, Sell Low: FOMO Made This Crypto Trader Lose 6,039 SOL Pal&#8217;s thesis draws attention to the &#8220;near-perfect 3 1\/2 year cyclicality&#8221; in the ISM business cycle, propelled by liquidity dynamics and the debt refinancing cycle at its core. He\u00a0underscores the significance of liquidity: &#8220;And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022&#8230; macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis.&#8221; This influx of liquidity is crucial for tech stocks, which historically thrive during these phases. Yet, it&#8217;s Bitcoin and, more broadly, the cryptocurrency market that exhibit the most dramatic responses. Pal presents staggering growth figures from past Macro Summer and Fall seasons to underscore his point: Bitcoin: Saw increases of &#8220;2012\/2013: +146x, 2016\/2017: +30x, 2020\/2021: +8x&#8230;&#8221; Ethereum: As an altcoin during the 2016\/2017 and 2020\/2021 cycles, it achieved &#8220;2016\/2017: +1,770x, 2020\/2021: +41x.&#8221; Altcoins (excluding ETH): Witnessed an aggregate market cap rise of &#8220;+24x&#8221; in the last cycle. \u201cWild! When we just look at Altcoins ex-ETH (we only have shorter data for the last cycle), the entire market cap rose +24x! And that includes thousands of worthless tokens that didn\u2019t rise, so I\u2019m not just cherry-picking winners here,\u201d Pal remarked. DOGE, a popular meme coin, is mentioned by the expert as another prime example of the &#8220;power of Crypto Summer and Fall,&#8221; with its value experiencing significant multipliers &#8211; &#8220;2016\/2017: +136x, 2020\/2021: +370x\u201d &#8211; in the aforementioned cycles. These figures underline the significant influence of macroeconomic cycles on crypto valuations, with Pal pointing out the alignment of these cycles with Bitcoin&#8217;s halving events. &#8220;Crypto summer has started and fully develops post-halving,&#8221; he states, highlighting the interconnectedness of these cycles with the broader financial landscape. Related Reading: Crypto Expert Reveals The Possibility Of Bitcoin Reaching $500,000 Notably, Pal&#8217;s analysis doesn&#8217;t stop at the past; it looks forward, suggesting that liquidity is expected to rise all the way into the end of 2025. This anticipation is rooted in a complex interplay of global financial mechanisms, including the potential for increased US money printing in response to a massive ramp-up in interest payments and changes in Fed Net Liquidity and the Treasury General Account (TGA). \u201cWill the US join the summer party? [&#8230;] I know it seems impossible now, but the US is on the verge of a massive ramp-up in interest payments. [&#8230;] at some point \u2013 the balance sheet will stop shrinking, which is enough to unleash liquidity into the system. [&#8230;] I cannot see how they don\u2019t massively expand liquidity, one way or another. Meanwhile, Pal predicts that it won\u2019t be just the US injecting liquidity into the financial systems in the coming months. \u201cI&#8217;ve no idea whether it&#8217;s China, the EU, Japan or the US that drives this or maybe a bit of all. Time will tell,\u201d he remarked. Pal attributes his investment strategies, especially in tech and crypto, to the insights gained from The Everything Code. This approach has prepared him for the unfolding Macro Summer, with a keen eye on the altcoin market and the so-called &#8220;Banana Zone.&#8221; He concludes: But the bigger game is yet to be played out as Alt season arrives and we fully enter the Banana Zone. The Banana Zone cometh, and it is a huge wealth-generating machine. Patience will be rewarded. In the meantime, don&#8217;t fuck this up. #DFTU At press time, BTC traded at $67,003. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":599490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[142,428,6664,14690,1558,91917,72562],"class_list":["post-599478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-altcoins","tag-bitcoin","tag-crypto","tag-crypto-news","tag-cryptocurrency","tag-liquidity-cycle","tag-macro"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>What is Macro\/Crypto Summer? 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