{"id":610878,"date":"2024-05-31T22:00:01","date_gmt":"2024-05-31T22:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=610878"},"modified":"2024-06-11T07:02:30","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T07:02:30","slug":"bitcoin-realized-volatility-extremely-rare-trend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-realized-volatility-extremely-rare-trend\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin ‘Realized Volatility’ Showing Very Rare Trend: What Could Be Next"},"content":{"rendered":"

Data shows that the Bitcoin Realized Volatility metric has fallen to historically low levels. What generally happens after this pattern forms?<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Realized Volatility Has Decline To Extreme Lows Recently<\/h2>\n

In a post<\/a> on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed about the latest trend taking place in the Realized Volatility of Bitcoin. The Realized Volatility<\/a> here refers to an indicator that basically tells us about how volatile a given asset has been based on its price returns within a specified window.<\/p>\n

When the value of this metric is high, it means that the asset in question has experienced a large number of fluctuations during the period. On the other hand, the low indicator implies that the price action has been stale for the commodity.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Ethereum Investors Take On Sky-High Leverage: Brace For Volatile Storm?<\/a><\/div>\n

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 1-week Realized Volatility for Bitcoin over the last few years:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
The value of the metric appears to have registered a plunge in recent days | Source: @AxelAdlerJr on X<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

As displayed in the above graph, the 1-week Bitcoin Realized Volatility has declined to pretty low levels of around 7% recently. This is so extreme that only ten other instances in the past six years have seen the metric go similarly low.<\/p>\n

This means that the cryptocurrency’s recent consolidation has been amongst the tightest in its history; as for what this trend in the indicator could mean for the cryptocurrency, perhaps past patterns could provide some hints.<\/p>\n

An inspection of the chart reveals that such stale price action in the asset has generally unwound with a burst of sharp volatility. The latest instance occurred right before the rally towards the new all-time high (ATH).<\/p>\n

Given this pattern, it’s possible that the recent BTC consolidation could also lead to another sharp move for the cryptocurrency. Something to note, however, is that the volatility emerging out of lows in the Realized Volatility has historically gone either way, implying that the price move emerging out of this tight range could very well be a crash.<\/p>\n

It remains to be seen how the Bitcoin price will develop from here on out, given the historically stale action it has witnessed over the past week.<\/p>\n

In other news, as Axel pointed out in another X post<\/a>, the recent movement from the bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox<\/a> has meant that many on-chain indicators have shown false signals.<\/p>\n

The analyst has cited the Bitcoin Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) chart as an example.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Looks like the value of the metric has shot up recently | Source: @AxelAdlerJr on X<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The aSOPR keeps track of the net profit or loss investors across the network realize. As the Mt. Gox BTC had been sitting still in wallets for quite a long time, it’s not surprising that its movement has “realized” a large amount of profit.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: This Bitcoin Metric Is \u201cOne Of Crypto\u2019s Top Leading Indicators\u201d: Santiment<\/a><\/div>\n

Of course, this spike in the indicator isn’t actually a sign of profit-taking, so it’s not a signal that would impact the market.<\/p>\n

BTC Price<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin has declined over the past day as its price is now down to $66,800.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
The price of the coin seems to have plunged during the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Data shows that the Bitcoin Realized Volatility metric has fallen to historically low levels. What generally happens after this pattern forms? Bitcoin Realized Volatility Has Decline To Extreme Lows Recently In a post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed about the latest trend taking place in the Realized Volatility of Bitcoin. The Realized Volatility here refers to an indicator that basically tells us about how volatile a given asset has been based on its price returns within a specified window. When the value of this metric is high, it means that the asset in question has experienced a large number of fluctuations during the period. On the other hand, the low indicator implies that the price action has been stale for the commodity. Related Reading: Ethereum Investors Take On Sky-High Leverage: Brace For Volatile Storm? Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 1-week Realized Volatility for Bitcoin over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the 1-week Bitcoin Realized Volatility has declined to pretty low levels of around 7% recently. This is so extreme that only ten other instances in the past six years have seen the metric go similarly low. This means that the cryptocurrency’s recent consolidation has been amongst the tightest in its history; as for what this trend in the indicator could mean for the cryptocurrency, perhaps past patterns could provide some hints. An inspection of the chart reveals that such stale price action in the asset has generally unwound with a burst of sharp volatility. The latest instance occurred right before the rally towards the new all-time high (ATH). Given this pattern, it’s possible that the recent BTC consolidation could also lead to another sharp move for the cryptocurrency. Something to note, however, is that the volatility emerging out of lows in the Realized Volatility has historically gone either way, implying that the price move emerging out of this tight range could very well be a crash. It remains to be seen how the Bitcoin price will develop from here on out, given the historically stale action it has witnessed over the past week. In other news, as Axel pointed out in another X post, the recent movement from the bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox has meant that many on-chain indicators have shown false signals. The analyst has cited the Bitcoin Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) chart as an example. The aSOPR keeps track of the net profit or loss investors across the network realize. As the Mt. Gox BTC had been sitting still in wallets for quite a long time, it’s not surprising that its movement has “realized” a large amount of profit. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Metric Is \u201cOne Of Crypto\u2019s Top Leading Indicators\u201d: Santiment Of course, this spike in the indicator isn’t actually a sign of profit-taking, so it’s not a signal that would impact the market. BTC Price Bitcoin has declined over the past day as its price is now down to $66,800. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":610913,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[428,88653,679,92485,86466,790,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-610878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-pattern","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-realized-volatility","tag-bitcoin-trend","tag-bitcoin-volatility","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin 'Realized Volatility' Showing Very Rare Trend: What Could Be Next<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Data shows the Bitcoin Realized Volatility has fallen to historically low levels. 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/keshavverma29\/","https:\/\/x.com\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/keshavvarma29"],"url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/author\/hououinkyouma29\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Bitcoin ‘Realized Volatility’ Showing Very Rare Trend: What Could Be Next","url":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-realized-volatility-extremely-rare-trend\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin-realized-volatility-extremely-rare-trend\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/btc_38ab6f.png?resize=200%2C200","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/btc_38ab6f.png?fit=1289%2C737"},"articleSection":"Cryptocurrency Market News","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Keshav Verma"}],"creator":["Keshav Verma"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"NewsBTC","logo":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32"},"keywords":["bitcoin","bitcoin pattern","bitcoin price","bitcoin realized volatility","bitcoin trend","bitcoin volatility","btc","btcusd"],"dateCreated":"2024-05-31T22:00:01Z","datePublished":"2024-05-31T22:00:01Z","dateModified":"2024-06-11T07:02:30Z"},"rendered":"<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"headline\":\"Bitcoin ‘Realized Volatility’ Showing Very Rare Trend: What Could Be Next\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-realized-volatility-extremely-rare-trend\\\/\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/news\\\/bitcoin-realized-volatility-extremely-rare-trend\\\/\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/btc_38ab6f.png?resize=200%2C200\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/btc_38ab6f.png?fit=1289%2C737\"},\"articleSection\":\"Cryptocurrency Market News\",\"author\":[{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Keshav Verma\"}],\"creator\":[\"Keshav Verma\"],\"publisher\":{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"NewsBTC\",\"logo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/wncen.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-favicon.png?w=32\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"bitcoin pattern\",\"bitcoin price\",\"bitcoin realized volatility\",\"bitcoin trend\",\"bitcoin volatility\",\"btc\",\"btcusd\"],\"dateCreated\":\"2024-05-31T22:00:01Z\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-05-31T22:00:01Z\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-11T07:02:30Z\"}<\/script>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/wncen.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/btc_38ab6f.png?fit=1289%2C737","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/610878"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/542"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=610878"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/610878\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/610913"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=610878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=610878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=610878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}