{"id":627331,"date":"2024-07-02T08:15:45","date_gmt":"2024-07-02T08:15:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=627331"},"modified":"2024-07-02T08:06:17","modified_gmt":"2024-07-02T08:06:17","slug":"bitcoin-bull-run-economic-echoes-1930-1970-arthur-hayes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-bull-run-economic-echoes-1930-1970-arthur-hayes\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Bull Run Tied To Economic Echoes Of The 1930s-1970: Arthur Hayes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, has recently offered a comprehensive analysis in his latest essay<\/a>, “Zoom Out,” drawing compelling parallels between the economic upheavals of the 1930s-1970s and today’s financial landscape, specifically focusing on the implications for the Bitcoin and crypto bull run. His in-depth examination suggests that historical economic patterns, when properly understood, can provide a blueprint for understanding the potential revival of the Bitcoin and crypto bull run.<\/p>\n

Understanding Financial Cycles<\/h2>\n

Hayes begins his analysis by exploring the major economic cycles starting from the Great Depression, through the mid-20th century economic booms, and into the stagnant 1970s. He categorizes these transformations into what he terms “Local” and “Global” cycles, central to understanding the broader macroeconomic forces at play.<\/p>\n

Local Cycles are characterized by intense national focus where economic protectionism and financial repression are prevalent. These cycles often arise from governmental responses to severe economic crises that prioritize national recovery over global cooperation, typically leading to inflationary outcomes due to the devaluation of fiat currencies and increased government spending.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Blasts Past $63,000: Top 3 Reasons<\/a><\/div>\n

Global Cycles, in contrast, are marked by periods of economic liberalization, where global trade and investment are encouraged, often leading to deflationary pressures due to increased competition and efficiency in global markets.<\/p>\n

Hayes carefully examines each cycle’s impact on asset classes, noting that during Local cycles, non-fiat assets like gold have historically performed well due to their nature as hedges against inflation and currency devaluation.<\/p>\n

Hayes draws a direct parallel between the creation of Bitcoin in 2009 and the economic environment of the 1930s. Just as the economic crises of the early 20th century led to transformative monetary policies, the financial crash of 2008 and subsequent quantitative easing set the stage for the introduction of Bitcoin<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Why The Bitcoin Bull Run Will Resume<\/h2>\n

Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s emergence during what he identifies as a renewed Local cycle, characterized by the global recession and significant central bank interventions, mirrors past periods where traditional financial systems were under stress, and alternative assets like gold rose to prominence.<\/p>\n

Expanding on the analogy between gold in the 1930s and Bitcoin today, Hayes elucidates how gold served as a safe haven<\/a>\u00a0during times of economic uncertainty and rampant inflation. He posits that Bitcoin, with its decentralized and state-independent nature, is well-suited to serve a similar purpose in today’s volatile economic climate.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Mt. Gox\u2019s Bitcoin Dump: How Will The $9 Billion Sell-Off Affect BTC\u2019s Price?<\/a><\/div>\n

“Bitcoin operates outside the traditional state systems, and its value proposition becomes particularly evident in times of inflation and financial repression,” Hayes notes. This feature of Bitcoin, he argues, makes it an indispensable asset for those seeking to preserve wealth amidst currency devaluation and fiscal instability.<\/p>\n

Hayes points out the significant surge in the US budget deficit, projected to reach $1.915 trillion in fiscal 2024, as a modern indicator that parallels the fiscal expansions of past Local cycles. This deficit, significantly higher than in previous years, marking the highest level outside the COVID-19 era<\/a>, is attributed to increased government spending akin to historical periods of government-induced economic stimuli.<\/p>\n

Hayes uses these fiscal indicators to suggest that just as past Local cycles led to increased valuation for non-state assets, the current fiscal and monetary policies are likely to enhance the appeal and value of Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

“Why am I confident that Bitcoin will regain its mojo? Why am I confident that we are in the midst of a new mega-local, nation-state first, inflationary cycle?” Hayes asks rhetorically in his essay. He believes that the same dynamics that drove the value of assets like gold during past economic upheavals are now aligning to bolster the value of Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

He concludes, \u201cI believe fiscal and monetary conditions are loose and will continue to be loose, and therefore, hodl\u2019ing crypto is the best way to preserve wealth. I am confident that today will rhyme with the 1930s to 1970s, and that means, given I can still freely move from fiat to crypto, I should do so because debasement through the expansion and centralisation of credit allocation through the banking system is coming.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $62,649.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC falls below $63,000, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from YouTube \/ What Bitcoin Did, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, has recently offered a comprehensive analysis in his latest essay, “Zoom Out,” drawing compelling parallels between the economic upheavals of the 1930s-1970s and today’s financial landscape, specifically focusing on the implications for the Bitcoin and crypto bull run. His in-depth examination suggests that historical economic patterns, when properly understood, can provide a blueprint for understanding the potential revival of the Bitcoin and crypto bull run. Understanding Financial Cycles Hayes begins his analysis by exploring the major economic cycles starting from the Great Depression, through the mid-20th century economic booms, and into the stagnant 1970s. He categorizes these transformations into what he terms “Local” and “Global” cycles, central to understanding the broader macroeconomic forces at play. Local Cycles are characterized by intense national focus where economic protectionism and financial repression are prevalent. These cycles often arise from governmental responses to severe economic crises that prioritize national recovery over global cooperation, typically leading to inflationary outcomes due to the devaluation of fiat currencies and increased government spending. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Blasts Past $63,000: Top 3 Reasons Global Cycles, in contrast, are marked by periods of economic liberalization, where global trade and investment are encouraged, often leading to deflationary pressures due to increased competition and efficiency in global markets. Hayes carefully examines each cycle’s impact on asset classes, noting that during Local cycles, non-fiat assets like gold have historically performed well due to their nature as hedges against inflation and currency devaluation. Hayes draws a direct parallel between the creation of Bitcoin in 2009 and the economic environment of the 1930s. Just as the economic crises of the early 20th century led to transformative monetary policies, the financial crash of 2008 and subsequent quantitative easing set the stage for the introduction of Bitcoin. Why The Bitcoin Bull Run Will Resume Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s emergence during what he identifies as a renewed Local cycle, characterized by the global recession and significant central bank interventions, mirrors past periods where traditional financial systems were under stress, and alternative assets like gold rose to prominence. Expanding on the analogy between gold in the 1930s and Bitcoin today, Hayes elucidates how gold served as a safe haven\u00a0during times of economic uncertainty and rampant inflation. He posits that Bitcoin, with its decentralized and state-independent nature, is well-suited to serve a similar purpose in today’s volatile economic climate. Related Reading: Mt. Gox\u2019s Bitcoin Dump: How Will The $9 Billion Sell-Off Affect BTC\u2019s Price? “Bitcoin operates outside the traditional state systems, and its value proposition becomes particularly evident in times of inflation and financial repression,” Hayes notes. This feature of Bitcoin, he argues, makes it an indispensable asset for those seeking to preserve wealth amidst currency devaluation and fiscal instability. Hayes points out the significant surge in the US budget deficit, projected to reach $1.915 trillion in fiscal 2024, as a modern indicator that parallels the fiscal expansions of past Local cycles. This deficit, significantly higher than in previous years, marking the highest level outside the COVID-19 era, is attributed to increased government spending akin to historical periods of government-induced economic stimuli. Hayes uses these fiscal indicators to suggest that just as past Local cycles led to increased valuation for non-state assets, the current fiscal and monetary policies are likely to enhance the appeal and value of Bitcoin. “Why am I confident that Bitcoin will regain its mojo? Why am I confident that we are in the midst of a new mega-local, nation-state first, inflationary cycle?” Hayes asks rhetorically in his essay. He believes that the same dynamics that drove the value of assets like gold during past economic upheavals are now aligning to bolster the value of Bitcoin. He concludes, \u201cI believe fiscal and monetary conditions are loose and will continue to be loose, and therefore, hodl\u2019ing crypto is the best way to preserve wealth. I am confident that today will rhyme with the 1930s to 1970s, and that means, given I can still freely move from fiat to crypto, I should do so because debasement through the expansion and centralisation of credit allocation through the banking system is coming.\u201d At press time, BTC traded at $62,649. Featured image from YouTube \/ What Bitcoin Did, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":627333,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651],"tags":[230,428,85533,656,679,1119,1122],"class_list":["post-627331","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bull-run","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-price"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Bull Run Tied To Economic Echoes Of 1930s-1970: Hayes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Arthur Hayes draws parallels between the economic upheavals of the 1930s-1970s and today, focusing on the implications for Bitcoin and crypto.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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Through his extensive work with wncen.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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