{"id":629948,"date":"2024-07-16T10:30:01","date_gmt":"2024-07-16T10:30:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=629948"},"modified":"2024-07-16T09:43:28","modified_gmt":"2024-07-16T09:43:28","slug":"ark-invest-bitcoin-report-bet-big-btcs-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/ark-invest-bitcoin-report-bet-big-btcs-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"Ark Invest\u2019s Bitcoin Report: Why They Bet Big On BTC\u2019s Recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"

In their latest analysis, Ark Invest’s crypto specialists Julian Falcioni, David Puell, and Dan White, are presenting<\/a> a review of the Bitcoin market behavior and prospects, delineating the interplay of various economic, technical, and policy-driven factors that could shape the future of this pioneering digital currency.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Validates The Bullish Scenario<\/h2>\n

Since early June, Bitcoin witnessed a significant decline, dropping more than -25%. More critically, on July 7, BTC fell beneath its 200-day moving average\u2014a key technical threshold. According to Ark, the dip below the 200-day moving average was \u201ca crucial bearish signal that often precedes further declines unless a strong recovery ensues.” Ultimately, Bitcoin displayed significant strength in the last few days and Ark was right in that BTC staged a quick recovery above the 200-day EMA, invalidating the bearish prospects.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Source: X @dpuellARK<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A surprising element in June’s Bitcoin volatility was the aggressive sale of approximately 50,000 Bitcoins by the German government. These assets were seized from the illegal streaming site Movie2K and gradually transferred to various exchanges for sale, starting June 19. “The influx of a large volume of bitcoins during a traditionally low liquidity period, around the July 4th holiday, significantly pressured the price downward,” the report notes. Notably, this selling pressure is now gone.<\/a><\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Hasn\u2019t Reached Bull Cycle Top Yet, Quant Explains Why<\/a><\/div>\n

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin managed an impressive rally of more than 17% in the last few days. Several indicators supported this reversal, according to Ark. The discrepancy between the decline in Bitcoin’s price and the lesser drop in US ETF balances<\/a>\u201417.3 %\u2014suggested that Bitcoin was oversold. “This overselling is likely driven by external shocks rather than intrinsic market movements, pointing towards a mispricing that could correct in the medium term,” the experts explain.<\/p>\n

\"Delta
Delta between 30d percent change in price vs US ETF flows | Source: X @dpuellARK<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Short-term holders<\/a>, typically a more speculative segment, have been realizing losses as indicated by the sell-side risk ratio. This ratio, calculated by dividing the sum of short-term holder profits and losses realized on-chain by their cost bases, showed more losses than profits, which typically precedes a short-term market correction.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Surges Past $63,000: The Key Reasons<\/a><\/div>\n

June also saw significant activity from Bitcoin miners. “Miner outflows, which often prelude market adjustments, mirrored patterns observed around previous Bitcoin halving events, when the reward for mining a block is halved,” says Ark. Such events historically lead to a decreased supply and potential price increases as market dynamics adjust to the new supply level.<\/p>\n

On the macroeconomic front, the report notes that the US economic data have been consistently underperforming against expectations, with the Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index registering the most significant negative deviations in a decade. Yet, the Federal Reserve has maintained a surprisingly hawkish tone, which could influence investor sentiment and financial market stability.<\/p>\n

Corporate America is not insulated from these challenges. Profit margins, which peaked in 2021, are on a downward trajectory as companies lose pricing power as Ark notes. This squeeze on profits is prompting price cuts across various sectors, further dampening economic outlooks.<\/p>\n

Regarding equity markets, there has been a notable increase in market capitalization concentration, reaching levels unseen since the Great Depression. “This concentration in larger entities with significant cash reserves could be an early indicator of a shifting economic landscape, which historically sees a breakout in favor of smaller cap stocks,” the report says.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $63,131.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
BTC rejected at key resistance (red zone), 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image created with DALL\u00b7E, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In their latest analysis, Ark Invest’s crypto specialists Julian Falcioni, David Puell, and Dan White, are presenting a review of the Bitcoin market behavior and prospects, delineating the interplay of various economic, technical, and policy-driven factors that could shape the future of this pioneering digital currency. Bitcoin Validates The Bullish Scenario Since early June, Bitcoin witnessed a significant decline, dropping more than -25%. More critically, on July 7, BTC fell beneath its 200-day moving average\u2014a key technical threshold. According to Ark, the dip below the 200-day moving average was \u201ca crucial bearish signal that often precedes further declines unless a strong recovery ensues.” Ultimately, Bitcoin displayed significant strength in the last few days and Ark was right in that BTC staged a quick recovery above the 200-day EMA, invalidating the bearish prospects. A surprising element in June’s Bitcoin volatility was the aggressive sale of approximately 50,000 Bitcoins by the German government. These assets were seized from the illegal streaming site Movie2K and gradually transferred to various exchanges for sale, starting June 19. “The influx of a large volume of bitcoins during a traditionally low liquidity period, around the July 4th holiday, significantly pressured the price downward,” the report notes. Notably, this selling pressure is now gone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hasn\u2019t Reached Bull Cycle Top Yet, Quant Explains Why Despite these challenges, Bitcoin managed an impressive rally of more than 17% in the last few days. Several indicators supported this reversal, according to Ark. The discrepancy between the decline in Bitcoin’s price and the lesser drop in US ETF balances\u201417.3 %\u2014suggested that Bitcoin was oversold. “This overselling is likely driven by external shocks rather than intrinsic market movements, pointing towards a mispricing that could correct in the medium term,” the experts explain. Short-term holders, typically a more speculative segment, have been realizing losses as indicated by the sell-side risk ratio. This ratio, calculated by dividing the sum of short-term holder profits and losses realized on-chain by their cost bases, showed more losses than profits, which typically precedes a short-term market correction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Surges Past $63,000: The Key Reasons June also saw significant activity from Bitcoin miners. “Miner outflows, which often prelude market adjustments, mirrored patterns observed around previous Bitcoin halving events, when the reward for mining a block is halved,” says Ark. Such events historically lead to a decreased supply and potential price increases as market dynamics adjust to the new supply level. On the macroeconomic front, the report notes that the US economic data have been consistently underperforming against expectations, with the Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index registering the most significant negative deviations in a decade. Yet, the Federal Reserve has maintained a surprisingly hawkish tone, which could influence investor sentiment and financial market stability. Corporate America is not insulated from these challenges. Profit margins, which peaked in 2021, are on a downward trajectory as companies lose pricing power as Ark notes. This squeeze on profits is prompting price cuts across various sectors, further dampening economic outlooks. Regarding equity markets, there has been a notable increase in market capitalization concentration, reaching levels unseen since the Great Depression. “This concentration in larger entities with significant cash reserves could be an early indicator of a shifting economic landscape, which historically sees a breakout in favor of smaller cap stocks,” the report says. At press time, BTC traded at $63,131. Featured image created with DALL\u00b7E, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":629976,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651],"tags":[8861,428,656,679,1119,1122,88609,85470],"class_list":["post-629948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-ark-invest","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-price","tag-cathie-woods-ark-invest","tag-david-puell"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nArk Invest\u2019s Bitcoin Report: Why They Bet Big On BTC\u2019s Recovery<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In their latest analysis, Ark's crypto specialists are presenting a review of the Bitcoin market behavior and explain why the remain bullish.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. 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Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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