{"id":635978,"date":"2024-08-16T22:00:26","date_gmt":"2024-08-16T22:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=635978"},"modified":"2024-08-16T15:29:42","modified_gmt":"2024-08-16T15:29:42","slug":"bearish-bitcoin-on-chain-analyst-answers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/bitcoin-news\/bearish-bitcoin-on-chain-analyst-answers\/","title":{"rendered":"When To Be Bearish On Bitcoin? On-Chain Analyst Answers"},"content":{"rendered":"

An on-chain analyst has explained signals in several metrics to see if Bitcoin is in a bearish phase.<\/p>\n

These Bitcoin Indicators Could Be To Follow For Bear Market Signals<\/h2>\n

In a new post<\/a> on X, on-chain analyst Checkmate replied to a user asking about an on-chain metric indicating when it’s time to turn bearish on cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n

Checkmate has shared two indicators: the Short-Term Holder Realized Profit\/Loss Momentum and the Short-Term Holder MVRV Ratio Momentum. “Short-Term Holders<\/a>” (STHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days, meaning that both of these metrics are only for the recent buyers in the market.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Observes Pullback To $58,000: Is This The Cause?<\/a><\/div>\n

First, the “Realized Profit\/Loss Momentum” measures, as its name suggests, the momentum in the ratio of the profit and loss that the STHs are realizing through their selling.<\/p>\n

Below is the chart for the indicator posted by the analyst.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Looks like the value of the metric has been quite negative in recent days | Source: @_Checkmatey_ on X<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

According to the analyst, it is time to be bearish when the oscillator on the bottom of this chart turns red (corresponding to negative momentum in the STH Realized Profit\/Loss).<\/p>\n

The graph shows that this oscillator assumed negative values soon after the price set its new all-time high (ATH)<\/a> and has since remained in the region. And indeed, while the indicator has seen these values, Bitcoin has been going through a rough phase.<\/p>\n

The STH MVRV Ratio Momentum’s second indicator works similarly and keeps track of the distance between the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio<\/a> for this cohort and its 155-day moving average (MA).<\/p>\n

The MVRV Ratio is a popular indicator that tells us how the value held by the investors (the market cap) compares against what they used to purchase their coins (the Realized Cap). In other words, the metric provides information about the unrealized profit\/loss of the holders.<\/p>\n

Thus, whereas the Realized Profit\/Loss keeps track of the net profit\/loss the investors are harvesting through their selling, this metric tells us about the profit\/loss they have yet to take.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: This Is The On-Chain Level That Made The Bitcoin Crash Bottom<\/a><\/div>\n

Here is the data for the momentum indicator for the MVRV Ratio specifically for the STHs:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
The value of the oscillator appears to have been negative recently | Source: @_Checkmatey_ on X<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

According to the analyst, just like with the first indicator, this one also gives a bearish signal when the momentum turns red. As the chart shows, the STH MVRV Ratio has been under its 155-day MA for the same period as the bearish momentum in the Realized Profit\/Loss, thus providing confluence to the signal.<\/p>\n

BTC Price<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin had pushed towards $62,000 earlier in the week, but the asset has since slipped up as it’s now back at $57,800.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
The price of the asset has gone down during the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image from Dall-E, checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An on-chain analyst has explained signals in several metrics to see if Bitcoin is in a bearish phase. These Bitcoin Indicators Could Be To Follow For Bear Market Signals In a new post on X, on-chain analyst Checkmate replied to a user asking about an on-chain metric indicating when it’s time to turn bearish on cryptocurrency. Checkmate has shared two indicators: the Short-Term Holder Realized Profit\/Loss Momentum and the Short-Term Holder MVRV Ratio Momentum. “Short-Term Holders” (STHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days, meaning that both of these metrics are only for the recent buyers in the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Observes Pullback To $58,000: Is This The Cause? First, the “Realized Profit\/Loss Momentum” measures, as its name suggests, the momentum in the ratio of the profit and loss that the STHs are realizing through their selling. Below is the chart for the indicator posted by the analyst. According to the analyst, it is time to be bearish when the oscillator on the bottom of this chart turns red (corresponding to negative momentum in the STH Realized Profit\/Loss). The graph shows that this oscillator assumed negative values soon after the price set its new all-time high (ATH) and has since remained in the region. And indeed, while the indicator has seen these values, Bitcoin has been going through a rough phase. The STH MVRV Ratio Momentum’s second indicator works similarly and keeps track of the distance between the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio for this cohort and its 155-day moving average (MA). The MVRV Ratio is a popular indicator that tells us how the value held by the investors (the market cap) compares against what they used to purchase their coins (the Realized Cap). In other words, the metric provides information about the unrealized profit\/loss of the holders. Thus, whereas the Realized Profit\/Loss keeps track of the net profit\/loss the investors are harvesting through their selling, this metric tells us about the profit\/loss they have yet to take. Related Reading: This Is The On-Chain Level That Made The Bitcoin Crash Bottom Here is the data for the momentum indicator for the MVRV Ratio specifically for the STHs: According to the analyst, just like with the first indicator, this one also gives a bearish signal when the momentum turns red. As the chart shows, the STH MVRV Ratio has been under its 155-day MA for the same period as the bearish momentum in the Realized Profit\/Loss, thus providing confluence to the signal. BTC Price Bitcoin had pushed towards $62,000 earlier in the week, but the asset has since slipped up as it’s now back at $57,800. Featured image from Dall-E, checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":542,"featured_media":636037,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88240],"tags":[428,461,85841,85949,1119,1144],"class_list":["post-635978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bearish","tag-bitcoin-bearish-signal","tag-bitcoin-on-chain","tag-btc","tag-btcusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhen To Be Bearish On Bitcoin? 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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to. In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor\u2019s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions. Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true. Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn\u2019t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment.. Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form. Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new. As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money. Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn\u2019t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs. Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. 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