{"id":637418,"date":"2024-08-23T13:30:39","date_gmt":"2024-08-23T13:30:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/?p=637418"},"modified":"2024-08-23T12:21:13","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T12:21:13","slug":"top-economist-bitcoin-price-top-before-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wncen.com\/news\/bitcoin\/top-economist-bitcoin-price-top-before-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Top Economist Predicts Bitcoin Price Top Before Worst Recession Since 1929"},"content":{"rendered":"

Henrik Zeberg, Head Macro Economist at Swissblock, has reasserted his prediction that a US recession is inevitable, but not before a dramatic upswing in financial markets, including a substantial rally for Bitcoin to heights between $115,000 and $120,000. In his most recent analysis<\/a> posted on X, Zeberg expounded upon the cyclical nature of markets and how they align with historical economic indicators and current fiscal policies.<\/p>\n

“REMEMBER!? In December 2022, everybody was BEARISH! I was BULLISH! We were told that ‘Imminent Crash’ was ahead of us – despite the fact that the market bottomed in October 2022,” Zeberg reiterated in his post. He laid out his refined predictions for major market indices and Bitcoin, pointing to a forthcoming “Blow Off Top”.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Faces Its First Recession Ever<\/h2>\n

A “blow-off top” refers to a sharp, rapid increase in the price in financial markets, followed by an equally sharp decline. This pattern is characterized by intense buying pressure that drives prices to extreme highs, often driven by speculative or euphoric behavior among traders. This surge in prices is usually unsustainable, leading to a significant sell-off as traders take profits or react to overbought conditions.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: These Are The Biggest Bitcoin Support & Resistance Zones, Analyst Reveals<\/a><\/div>\n

The blow of the top predicted by Zeberg could be triggered by the US Federal Reserve injecting massive amounts of liquidity<\/a> into circulation to prevent a recession. Based on this, Zeberg forecast that the S&P 500 will rise to 6,100-6,300, the Nasdaq to 24,000-25,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average to roughly 45,000, and Bitcoin to $115,000-120,000.<\/p>\n

Zeberg’s bullish stance contrasts starkly with his dire prediction for the post-rally period. “Now….. we are not at the top – yet! But Recession IS coming – and it will be the worst since 1929. Major Bear market (in 2 phases; Deflationary and Stagflationary – separated by a mid-way bounce as Fed enters in 2025),” he explained, suggesting a complex recessionary cycle influenced by both market dynamics and Federal Reserve (Fed) policies.<\/p>\n

The economist’s skepticism toward the effectiveness of impending Federal Reserve rate cuts<\/a> is rooted in a detailed critique of similar historical measures. Despite the market\u2019s expectation of a 25 basis points cut at the next FOMC meeting in September\u2014a move supported by 73.5% of market participants (according to the CME FedWatch tool), with a smaller fraction (26.5%) anticipating a more aggressive 50 basis points cut\u2014Zeberg remains unconvinced these will forestall recessionary pressures.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: September 10: A Bitcoin Game Changer, Says Hedge Fund Founder<\/a><\/div>\n

“But\u2026 but\u2026 Fed rate cuts\u2026. ?? The Global Economy is breaking. US Recession begins December 2024,” Zeberg stated, reflecting his belief that short-term liquidity injections are insufficient to counteract deeper economic malaises. He points to the liquidity cycle metrics comparable to those seen in 2007, questioning the effectiveness of such strategies in preventing the 2008 financial crisis.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, Zeberg highlights the recent end of the inversion<\/a> between the US. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, traditionally viewed as a predictor of economic downturns. The inversion, where short-term yields exceed long-term yields, is typically a signal of investor uncertainty about the near-term economic outlook.<\/p>\n

Another pillar of Zeberg\u2019s argument is the recent job market data. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its March 2024 total employment estimates downward by 818,000\u2014the largest revision in 15 years\u2014indicating significant weakness in the job market, far more pronounced than initial estimates suggested. “Economy much weaker than expected,” Zeberg commented.<\/p>\n

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $60,764.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Henrik Zeberg, Head Macro Economist at Swissblock, has reasserted his prediction that a US recession is inevitable, but not before a dramatic upswing in financial markets, including a substantial rally for Bitcoin to heights between $115,000 and $120,000. In his most recent analysis posted on X, Zeberg expounded upon the cyclical nature of markets and how they align with historical economic indicators and current fiscal policies. “REMEMBER!? In December 2022, everybody was BEARISH! I was BULLISH! We were told that ‘Imminent Crash’ was ahead of us – despite the fact that the market bottomed in October 2022,” Zeberg reiterated in his post. He laid out his refined predictions for major market indices and Bitcoin, pointing to a forthcoming “Blow Off Top”. Bitcoin Faces Its First Recession Ever A “blow-off top” refers to a sharp, rapid increase in the price in financial markets, followed by an equally sharp decline. This pattern is characterized by intense buying pressure that drives prices to extreme highs, often driven by speculative or euphoric behavior among traders. This surge in prices is usually unsustainable, leading to a significant sell-off as traders take profits or react to overbought conditions. Related Reading: These Are The Biggest Bitcoin Support & Resistance Zones, Analyst Reveals The blow of the top predicted by Zeberg could be triggered by the US Federal Reserve injecting massive amounts of liquidity into circulation to prevent a recession. Based on this, Zeberg forecast that the S&P 500 will rise to 6,100-6,300, the Nasdaq to 24,000-25,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average to roughly 45,000, and Bitcoin to $115,000-120,000. Zeberg’s bullish stance contrasts starkly with his dire prediction for the post-rally period. “Now….. we are not at the top – yet! But Recession IS coming – and it will be the worst since 1929. Major Bear market (in 2 phases; Deflationary and Stagflationary – separated by a mid-way bounce as Fed enters in 2025),” he explained, suggesting a complex recessionary cycle influenced by both market dynamics and Federal Reserve (Fed) policies. The economist’s skepticism toward the effectiveness of impending Federal Reserve rate cuts is rooted in a detailed critique of similar historical measures. Despite the market\u2019s expectation of a 25 basis points cut at the next FOMC meeting in September\u2014a move supported by 73.5% of market participants (according to the CME FedWatch tool), with a smaller fraction (26.5%) anticipating a more aggressive 50 basis points cut\u2014Zeberg remains unconvinced these will forestall recessionary pressures. Related Reading: September 10: A Bitcoin Game Changer, Says Hedge Fund Founder “But\u2026 but\u2026 Fed rate cuts\u2026. ?? The Global Economy is breaking. US Recession begins December 2024,” Zeberg stated, reflecting his belief that short-term liquidity injections are insufficient to counteract deeper economic malaises. He points to the liquidity cycle metrics comparable to those seen in 2007, questioning the effectiveness of such strategies in preventing the 2008 financial crisis. Furthermore, Zeberg highlights the recent end of the inversion between the US. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, traditionally viewed as a predictor of economic downturns. The inversion, where short-term yields exceed long-term yields, is typically a signal of investor uncertainty about the near-term economic outlook. Another pillar of Zeberg\u2019s argument is the recent job market data. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its March 2024 total employment estimates downward by 818,000\u2014the largest revision in 15 years\u2014indicating significant weakness in the job market, far more pronounced than initial estimates suggested. “Economy much weaker than expected,” Zeberg commented. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $60,764. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":637422,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651],"tags":[428,656,679,6848,92947,1119,89185,1122,17066,91220],"class_list":["post-637418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-price-prediction","tag-bitcoin-price-prediction-recession","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price","tag-btc-price-prediction","tag-us-recession"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTop Economist Predicts Bitcoin Price Top Before Recession Begins<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Henrik Zeberg has reasserted his prediction that a US recession is inevitable, but not before a dramatic upswing for 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His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. 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Through his extensive work with wncen.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake\u2019s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake\u2019s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it\u2019s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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